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UPDATE: PRACTICAL MOVE, LORD MILES, CONTINUAR, SKINNER AND THE FAVORITE FORTE HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED. POST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY...
Welcome to the 13th Annual Casual Kentucky Derby Preview! Lucky 13! Bar mitzvah year!
It’s great to be back with you previewing the Run for the Roses on the First Saturday in May. In this column you will find the tried-and-true handicapping analysis of the Greatest Two Minutes in Sports that has netted its followers thousands of dollars over the last decade plus.
Before we get to the analysis of the ponies, let’s take a look at last year’s Derby which was a complete shitshow. Rich Strike, a horse that wasn’t even in the race until the day before, won as an 80-1 longshot, netting those lucky enough to have him in their superfectas a whopping $320,000. Not bad! That happened mainly because the pace was set out of the gate at blistering speed. In fact, the 2022 Derby produced an opening quarter-mile in :21.78, the fastest ever! The horses that kept up with that pace around the track best were class horses, with Epicenter and Zandon batting hard but ultimately giving way to Rich Strike who rode the rail and cleaned up at the wire. This year should be very different. Put simply, there isn’t much early speed which should in theory allow these horses to hold to form. The good news there is that the better horses should be able to run their races and hit the board. The bad news is that there may not be a lot of money to make.
That said, we can still take swings. As in years past I’m going to narrow the 20-horse field down to a group of 6 for a real casual $1, 6-horse trifecta box ($120) of Casual Destiny and Hope and Freedom and America. Without further ado, below is the most casual analysis of the 2023 Kentucky Derby field you will likely find anywhere else, from someone who has actually watched all of these horses run in all of their prep races. No, really. EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM. Indeed, after all these years my life still has very little meaning.
Away we go!
Here is this year’s stable of ponies…
1. Hit Show 30-1:
2nd in the Wood Memorial to an uninspiring Lord Miles, Hit Show draws dead at the 1. Would need everything to collapse around him to hit the board.
Verdict: TOSS
2. Verifying 15-1:
The son of Triple Crown winner Justify heads to Churchill after running a game 2nd to Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass after finishing 4th in the Rebel. Frontrunning horse, will likely be right near the leaders around the first turn and will have a big say in how this race plays out. If Verifying can get a good ground saving trip at the rail he has the closing speed to hit the board. Was arguably just as good as Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass. Good value.
Verdict: Include
3. Two Phil’s 12-1:
Big 101 Beyer speed figure to win the Jeff Ruby Stakes. Not much class competition in that field but impressive stretch run to win convincingly on first race on synthetics and solid late speed figures. Phil has struggled a bit on dirt, however, with a 3rd place finish in his last dirt run in the Risen Star. Annoying apostrophe.
Verdict: Include in exotics.
4. Confidence Game 20-1:
Won the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn in the slop. Has reportedly looked good at Churchill this week but I don’t think the 4 post does him any favors. Nothing pops from a numbers standpoint, would need a lot to happen.
Verdict: TOSS
5. Tapit Trice 5-1:
Blue Grass winner battled Verifying down the stretch and put him away at the wire to win his 4th in a row. Career best Beyer of 99 in that one for a grinding horse that should be in the mix at the top of the stretch. Don’t love the 5 post for him, has a tendency to not have clean breaks.
Verdict: Include.
6. Kingsbarns 12-1:
The Louisiana Derby winner, Kingsbarns wired the field to remain undefeated and is 3 for 3. The Beyer speed figure of 95 is a tad low for my liking, should be forwardly placed out of the 6.
Verdict: Include.
7. Reincarnate 50-1:
3rd in the Rebel Stakes and 3rd in the Arkansas Derby, Reincarnate will need the biggest race of his life. I’ll be looking elsewhere.
Verdict: TOSS
8. Mage 15-1:
2nd to Forte in the Florida Derby, Mage ran a nice race but was run down in the stretch by Forte. Did he make a move too soon? Good price at 15-1, 8 post should allow him to settle towards the back as his closing style prefers.
Verdict: Include.
9. Skinner 20-1: (SCRATCHED)
Skinner finished 2nd in the San Felipe and 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby, could hit the board here as he will be running late. Closer that should be towards the back of the field halfway through this race, speed to be in the mix. Value play.
Verdict: Include.
10. Practical Move 10-1 (SCRATCHED)
Santa Anita winner, was able to stalk at the rail off the fast pace with early fractions of 22/46 that could be similar in the Derby and hold off Mandarin Hero at the wire. Would have been more impressed if he was able to pull away down the stretch. Still, tough to ignore 3 straight wins and two 100+ Beyers. 10 post should give him the ability to choose his path.
Verdict: Include
11. Disarm 30-1:
2nd in the Louisiana Derby (G2), 3rd in the Lexington Stakes (G3). Hasn’t beaten anyone and will have difficulty changing that here unless something crazy happens.
Verdict: TOSS
12. Jace’s Road 50-1:
Didn’t even bother in the Louisiana Derby and would be surprised if we see anything different here. Not fast enough.
Verdict: TOSS
13. Sun Thunder 50-1:
Most impressive run from the back to finish 2nd in the Risen Star but mainly downhill since, with a 5th place finish in the Louisiana Derby and then a 4th in the Blue Grass. Nothing indicates that he wants the distance.
Verdict: TOSS.
14. Angel of Empire 8-1:
Won both the Risen Star at Fair Grounds and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, with both wins coming in similar mid-pack fashion and pulling away convincingly in stretch. Improved Beyer figures in all of his starts, though career best 94 in the Arkansas isn’t exactly mind-blowing.
Verdict: Include
15. Forte 3-1: (SCRATCHED)
Well-deserved morning line fave and top choice, Forte heads to Churchill with the top resume in the field having won 6 of 7 career starts and 5 in a row including big stakes wins in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby. Strong Beyers should have him up there in the stretch. Stalker that should be running at the end, edged Mage in the Florida with an impressive final kick to the wire after weaving through and around other horses. Question as to whether he has peaked too soon.
Verdict: Include.
16. Raise Cain 50-1:
Won the Gotham but then finished 5th in the Blue Grass, another horse that will need to show a lot more to hit the board. An average closer in a field with better ones.
Verdict: TOSS.
17. Derma Sotogake 10-1:
Typically would toss the UAE Derby winner but this guy looks different. Absolutely mauled the field without having to give much of an effort in a race too visually impressive to ignore. He’s a wildcard but worth a look. Estimated Beyer of 103.
Verdict: Include
18. Rocket Can 30-1:
And I think it’s gonna be a long, long time, ‘til touchdown brings me ‘round again to find, I’m not the man they think I am at home, oh, no no no, I’m a Rocket Can. Rocket Can, burning out his fuse up here alone. Love Elton John. Rocket Can will be wearing blinkers for the first time in this race which tells me his connections want him to zoom to the lead and see what happens.
Verdict: TOSS.
19. Lord Miles 30-1: (SCRATCHED)
5th in the Tampa Bay Derby and nowhere near making the Derby field until a huge upset win in the Wood Memorial got him here. An improving horse or merely one that was best over a weak field that day? I’ll wager on the latter, especially out of the 19 post.
Verdict: TOSS.
20. Continuar: 50-1: (SCRATCHED)
5th in the Saudi Derby (G3) then was third in the UAE Derby (G2), trounced by Derma Sotogake. Not much to like here, don’t think he’ll be a factor. 20 post is not helping matters.
Verdict: TOSS
21. Cyclone Mischief: 50-1
The new entrant into the field to replace Practical Move, Cyclone is coming off of a 3rd place finish in the Florida Derby. Not a ton of speed and seems overmatched here. This is not a Rich Strike situation. Then again, maybe it is.
Verdict: TOSS
22. Mandarin Hero: 20-1
Interesting. Very interesting. A Japanese import, Mandarin Hero won 4 of 5 career starts before his connections sent him to the U.S to take on better competition in the Santa Anita Derby. He ran a bold race in the Santa Anita, nearly defeating the much-heralded Practical Move and registering a 100 Beyer in the process. Unlike fellow Japanese horse Derma Sotogake, he has run on U.S soil and has looked good doing so. 20-1 morning line odds for a late entrant into the field speaks to his ability. Likely wins the Santa Anita if the race were a furlong longer. Will need to make up a lot of ground out of the gate but good value play.
Verdict: Include
23. King Russell: 50-1
This King will not be coronated.
Verdict: TOSS.
OK! So we’ve cut the field to:
2. Verifying 15-1
3. Two Phil’s 12-1
5. Tapit Trice 5-1
6. Kingsbarns 12-1
8. Mage 15-1
9. Skinner 20-1
14. Angel of Empire 8-1
15. Forte 3-1
17. Derma Sotogake 10-1
22. Mandarin Hero 20-1
10 horses! Half the damn field! Need to get to 6…
Of the above, I am going to bounce:
6. Kingsbarns - 3 for 3 which is great but also lightly raced. Will be forwardly placed and I suspect will run out of gas.
8. Mage - I like this horse but can’t come to terms with his loss in the Florida. Had every chance to win that race until he was looked in the eye by Forte in the stretch and finished 2nd. Seems to be a trend, only career win was at 7 furlongs.
9. Skinner - I initially had Skinner in my 6-horse tri but I’m taking him out and replacing him with Mandarin Hero, who was simply better in the Santa Anita and was running gamely at the wire, past Skinner who had every chance to win that race but finished 3rd.
17. Derma Sotogake - Every single year I talk myself into the UAE Derby winner as some sort of wildcard potential superhorse and every single year they let me down. From Mendelssohn to Lani to Thunder Snow, all of these cats look great overseas and come to Churchill and wilt. Fully expect this horse to try to get out front early and dictate pace, whether he can hold up is anyone’s guess. I’d rather put my money on horses that have run stateside against class competition and haven’t been asked to travel all over the world. USA! USA! USA!
NOTE: With Forte scratched I am including Derma Sotogake in the final 6. Love Japan.
That leaves our 6 horses as:
2. Verifying 15-1
3. Two Phil’s 12-1
5. Tapit Trice 5-1
14. Angel of Empire 8-1
17. Derma Sotogake 10-1
22. Mandarin Hero 20-1
RACE ANALYSIS
The usual thought with the Kentucky Derby as mentioned at the top is that swift early fractions (quarter mile in less than 23 seconds, half mile less than 46) are bad news for horses with a front-running style as they will fade and get run down in the stretch by horses with better tactical and closing speed.
This year’s Derby is devoid of the strong early pace that last year’s had. I’d expect Verifying, Kingsbarns, Derma Sotogake and Rocket Can to be out front early and take this group around the track. If the visuals in the prep races hold true to form, at the top of the stretch those horses will be joined by mid-pack tacticians Angel of Empire, Two Phil’s, Mandarin Hero and Tapit Trice while closers like Forte and Skinner make moves as well.
If I had to pick a trifecta/superfecta with some value upside, I’ll go with the below. As a reminder I will be boxing them so it doesn’t matter how they finish:
WIN: 14. Angel of Empire 8-1
PLACE: 5. Tapit Trice 5-1
SHOW: 22. Mandarin Hero 20-1
4th: 3. Two Phil’s 12-1
5th: 17. Derma Sotogake 10-1
6th: 2. Verifying 15-1
Picks subject to change if we get any late entrants into the field or weather becomes a factor as the race nears, so keep up in the comments below.
Casual Churchill Documentation below:
2009 Derby champion Mine That Bird!
Remember, a bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office.
Enjoy the race.
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