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TEA LEAVES: Georgetown Still Is a Landing Spot for 5-Star Patrick Baldwin, Jr. (UPDATED 4/16)

Whispers that Duke and UW-Milwaukee are out may imply that Georgetown is in?

Column Greenstein Brian O’Mahoney/Pioneer Press/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

It’s hard to keep track of all the rumors for Georgetown Hoyas recruits and potential transfers—including during the quiet week since last transfer portal news—but one recruit that Hoyas fans are really listening for is Patrick Baldwin, Jr.

Baldwin is a top-5 recruit and currently sidelined by an ankle injury. According to many sites, Baldwin still has a list of 10 schools he’s looking at, including Georgetown, Duke, and University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, where his father coaches.

However, the whispers from Duke circles are that Coach K’s program may have been eliminated, while the rumors from Wisconsin are that UW-Milwaukee might be out, too. One can only assume that his bags are packed and he’s ready to come to Georgetown, right? UNC, Kentucky, and Northwestern followers seem to think they have a shot.

Each fan base holds on to hope, but this super-secret recruitment, paired with reports of Ewing’s recent extra excitement over next year’s team might point to the Hoyas potentially having the inside track these days. Maybe?

As a great man once said, “Hold onto your butts.”

Here are some of the recruiting site profiles for Pat Baldwin, Jr.:

Here are the links:

Duke basketball target likely to commit without warning | BALLDURHAM

It’s possible the delay in announcing his choice is a sign that Patrick Baldwin Jr. hasn’t yet completely made up his mind about playing for perceived frontrunner Milwaukee, where his namesake father is the head coach. Whatever the younger Baldwin decides, or has already decided but hasn’t yet disclosed to the public, folks shouldn’t expect any advance notice of his decision. Rather, according to a tweet on Saturday afternoon from Joe Tipton of Tipton Edits — keep in mind that he’s the guy who creatively helps most top recruits unveil their decisions on social media and thereby often knows said decisions before most anyone else — Baldwin’s announcement plan is apparently of the some-random-time variety...

Baldwin still technically has 10 finalists: Duke, Georgetown, Kentucky, Michigan, Milwaukee, Northwestern, UCLA, UNC, Virginia, and Wisconsin. And the 18-year-old phenom has mentioned several times in recent months that he has no intention of trimming the list before his announcement day.

Basketball Recruiting - Re-Ranking the Contenders: Patrick Baldwin Jr. | BASKETBALLRECRUITING.RIVALS

WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE The Panthers have always been an option for Baldwin Jr. because his father is the team’s head coach. Just how serious an option they were had fluctuated over the years, however. These days, the Horizon League program not only seems like a serious threat to land the No. 5 prospect in the country but possibly even the front-runner. Baldwin Sr. is 44-69 in his four years as the program’s head coach and his son happens to have the talent to help turn that record around in a hurry. He also knows better than anyone how to use his offspring’s skill set, so the basketball marriage would likely be a symbiotic one. Baldwin Jr. would be the top recruit in program history by a wide margin, but the situation makes more sense than it would seem on the surface.

Top SI99 Wing Patrick Baldwin Jr. ’75 Percent Sure’ on College Destination | SI

Back in December when Patrick Baldwin Jr. broke the news of his season-ending ankle injury with Sports Illustrated, SI99’s top wing said he would use the sudden time away from the game to focus on his recruitment. Baldwin was mulling over a top 10 of Duke, Georgetown, Kentucky, Michigan, Northwestern, North Carolina, UCLA, UW-Milwaukee, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Less than two months later, Baldwin said he’s “75 percent sure” that he knows where he wants to go. “I think I know where I would like to go,” Baldwin said. “So, I’m just kinda just sitting on it right now.”

Still, don’t expect any big announcements to come this week or next, Baldwin said he wants to take his time to get to get to 100 percent certainty. “I think in a few weeks or a few months I’ll be able to say 100 percent,” Baldwin said. “I’ll take as much time as I would like to.”

Analyzing Patrick Baldwin Jr. — Is he worth all the hype? | INSIDENU

A much more apt comparison is Michael Porter Jr., the former number one overall high school prospect who missed nearly the entirety of his freshman season at Missouri and sat out his entire first year in the NBA with the Denver Nuggets. Porter has broken out as a pleasant addition in Denver in the 2019-20 season despite playing less than 1000 minutes in the regular season, as the 6-foot-11, 44.2 percent three-point shooter adds a bit of pop and burst to a team sometimes lacking in those areas.

Just by raw percentages there’s a case that while PBJ is a very good shooter, he’s not an elite, knockdown type of guy just yet. I was able to find seven accurate box scores from his AAU/non-high school games in the last two years, and I combined that with stats given from 25 games he played for Sussex Hamilton this past year to find as close to a consistent stat line for PBJ as I could (Note: Stats for high school basketball games are infamous for their inaccuracy. I couldn’t even get any number on two-point field goals attempted by PBJ. Wisconsin apparently feels inclined to only keep track of total field goals made and total threes made in terms of shot attempts. Curse this wretched world).

Other recruiting news:

UPDATE 4/16: Hoyas still very much in the Patrick Baldwin, Jr. competition according to Rob Cassidy of 247:

Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s situation, on the other hand, is a bit more complicated. Not long ago, the prevailing thought was the No. 4 prospect in the 2021 class would land in the Summit League and play for his father at Milwaukee. These days, both Duke and Georgetown are in the thick of the race and things seem less a tad certain than they once did. Baldwin has announced no timetable for a decision, but whenever it comes expect the Blue Devils, Panthers or Hoyas to be the beneficiary.