FanPost

Could the Experimental Rules Help the Hoyas in the NIT?

While the season is not over--and there are no guarantees that our Georgetown Hoyas (15-13; 5-12) will even be invited to the 2018 National Invitation Tournament--there have been some interesting developments in the NIT that could potentially help the Hoyas. At risk of jinxing everything, here's a quick look at the changes.

The NCAA has released:

The 2018 NIT will feature four rules modifications:

​• The three-point line will be extended by approximately 1 foot 8 inches to the same distance used by FIBA for international competition (22 feet 1.75 inches).
​• The free throw lane will be widened from 12 feet to 16 feet, consistent with the width used by the NBA.
​• The games will be divided into four 10-minute quarters as opposed to two 20-minute halves. Teams will shoot two free throws beginning with the fifth foul of each quarter.
• The shot clock will reset to 20 seconds after an offensive rebound instead of the full 30 seconds.

Each of these has the opportunity to help the Hoyas, for instance:

1. Threes

From stats on sports-reference.com, Big East opponents thus far have made 163 of 427 three-point attempts (.382), while Georgetown has only made 136 of 357 (.381). Through 17 Big East games that would mean the opponents make 9.6 of 25.1 versus GU's 8 out of 21 per game. Not a huge difference, but there have been a handful of games where one or two three-pointers determined the "L." Moving the three-point line back is expected to reduce the opponents' percentage of making threes, which could potentially help a team leading by double-digits sustain that lead a little easier, right?

An article from Bleacher Report advocates for moving the arc back to decrease reliance on the three-point shot and increase "predictability" in games:

The national three-point rate in 2013-14 was 32.9...The following season, it jumped to 34.2...Then to 35.4...Last year, it was 36.4...Currently, we're at 37.4.

How much of a difference can a couple of percentage points make, though?...Well, with 351 teams playing 31-plus games per year—not to mention the increase in tempo when the shot clock was reduced to 30 seconds in 2015-16—it's a massive difference:

  • 2013-14: 32.9 three-point rate, 6.31 made threes per game, 18.22 attempts per game
  • 2017-18*: 37.4 three-point rate, 7.73 made threes per game, 21.93 attempts per game

The article also identifies that 2017-18 has seen quite a few upsets of ranked teams, as well as comebacks *ahem*, that are attributed to the long-ball: "Already this season, an unranked team has defeated an AP Top Five team 17 times...[c]omparatively, by the end of January in the 2013-14 season, it had only happened five times. And in 2014-15, it happened just six times." In other words, the three-pointer creates more parity in the NCAA.

This year especially, the Hoyas have an advantageous game plan to benefit from this NIT adjustment via prioritizing looks down low. Nevertheless, let's not pretend that Marcus Derrickson or Jahvon Blair haven't dialed in from very long distance with decent accuracy.

Moreover, while moving the three-point arc outwards could also help the Hoyas spread the floor and get looks inside, it could potentially create more space to guard on the opposite end and open driving lanes.

2. Four Quarters

There are (optimistically) two reasons why four quarters may help the Hoyas: (a) extra rest for a short bench and (b) fouls.

One of the biggest complaints with a two-half-system is that in a physical second half a bunch of fouls in the beginning can lead to a long ending to the game where teams are in the bonus fairly early. The reset at the fourth quarter could allow for fewer free-throws by opponents than if the Hoyas go over 7 fouls with, e.g., 8 minutes left in the game. Moreover, there may have to be a change in strategy for each team in evaluating when to step up pressure and risk fouling. Maybe a former NBA associate head coach has some ideas about that?

The optimistic benefit for Georgetown would be that they would shoot the same amount of free-throws on shooting- fouls while their opponents would shoot less from being in the bonus. There's not much proof to support that hope, but with opponents shooting more threes there's ostensibly fewer fouls by Hoyas on drives. Seth Davis for Sports Illustrated doesn't think there's much reason for a change:

You would think the argument to go to four quarters would center on a desire to reduce team fouls and free throws, and therefore speed up games. However, those things did not happen in the women's game. During the 2014–15 season, the last where the women played two 20-minute halves, teams averaged 17.52 fouls and 18.13 free throws per game. After the change, they averaged 17.55 fouls per and 17.15 free throws per game. The length of games was also roughly the same.

Georgetown has been much better with fouls this year than in recent memory, being only the 3rd worst in free-throw attempts allowed (21.1 for 28.8 per game) while leading the Big East in free-throw attempts and makes (25.5 per 33.5 per game). In non-conference games GU allowed teams to shoot 10.2 per 15.1 per game while they averaged making 18.9 out of 24.1 attempts. The advantage at the line could continue to be friendly to Georgetown with a rule change that may reduce their opponent's trips to the charity stripe.

3. Shot Clock

If the shot clock resets to 20 seconds after an offensive rebound, that would likely benefit a team who gives up a lot of offensive rebounds and hurt a team who gets a lot a offensive rebounds, right? Maybe.

Georgetown gave up 157 offensive rebounds to Big East opponents through 17 games (4th worst) and was 3rd best in getting offensive rebounds (179) through 17 games. Assuming that the offensive rebounds given up are mostly long bounces from three-point attempts, reducing the shot clock on those possessions may help Georgetown defend against second-chance points from set plays and open looks on the perimeter. On the other hand, Georgetown's leaders in offensive rebounds are Jessie Govan (2.5 per game), Marcus Derrickson (2.3 per game), and Kaleb Johnson (1.6 per game) who all tend to go back up with an o-reb rather than let the shot clock tick. Again, this might hurt opponents and not affect the Hoyas, which is a net plus.

4. The Lane

If they are widening the lane from 12 to 16 feet, it will need to be repainted. Re-painting is another chance for #Kente:

hoya-court-future

We'll see how the rest of the season pans out and whether the Hoyas get a chance to be in the NIT.

If you're checking your calendars, selections will be March 9-11 and the dates of the games will be:

First Round games will be played [Tues-Wed] March 13 and 14, Second Round games are scheduled for March 15-19 and Quarterfinal Round games will be played March 20 and 21.

Stay Casual, my friends.