As Hoya fans know, we are currently running neck-and-neck with DePaul for last place in the Big East - and our position in the conference isn't likely to change dramatically between now and the end of the season. Even the most rabid supporter of the Hoya program and coach, looking through the bluest and grayest of prisms, has to acknowledge that since the New Big East was formed we've performed MUCH closer to DePaul's level than to Villanova's level - never more so than this season.
While the Georgetown/DePaul comparison has been made by some as this season has progressed, what I haven't seen mentioned is that JT3's coaching career at Georgetown has also begun to resemble Joey Meyer's at DePaul. As some of you know, Joey Meyer was a coach who took over a nationally known and respected basketball program from his father - and, over time, ran it into the ground. While JT3's (and the Georgetown basketball program's) situation when he took over the Hoya program in 2004 was somewhat different, there are also some very strong parallels. Below are a few comparisons of Joey Meyer's 13 year coaching career at DePaul, and JT3's 13 year coaching career at Georgetown (I'm including the current season):
Joey Meyer: 7 NCAA tournaments in his first 8 seasons, zero in his last 5. NCAA Tournament record of 6-7
JT3: 7 NCAA tournaments in his first 9 seasons, one since. NCAA Tournament record of 9-8
Joey Meyer: 2 losing seasons - his last 2
JT3: 2 losing seasons (I'm including this season, as all signs are that's where we're headed) - the (his?) last 2
Joey Meyer: Seasons 3 through 8 were all at least 20-win seasons
JT3: Seasons 2 through 9 were all but one at least 20-win seasons.
Joey Meyer: His teams were ranked in 6 of his first 8 seasons, and never thereafter
JT3: His teams were ranked in 8 of his first 9 seasons, I believe, and for only a week or two thereafter I think (Does anyone know this exact statistic in 2014-15?)
Joey Meyer: Things started to fall apart for him, and for the DePaul program, when DePaul joined a new conference in year 9 of his tenure. The team's records began to worsen immediately.
JT3: Things started to fall apart for him, and for the Georgetown program, when Georgetown joined the New Big East in year 10 of his tenure.
Joey Meyer's 13-year record at DePaul: 231-158 (59.4%), which includes a 3-23 final season. Prior to that season his winning percentage was 62.8%.
JT3 13-year record to date at Georgetown: 274-142 (65.9%). Assuming Georgetown finishes this season 15-18 again, which is my guess, his cumulative record will be 278-151 (64.8%)
I'm sure that anyone who really wants to can poke holes in the comparison of the two coaches (including that Joey Meyer inherited a somewhat stronger program than did JT3, and that JT3 did not inherit the program directly from his father, but rather from his father's chosen successor). And, to date, JT3 has done a bit better than Joey Meyer per the metrics above. But not a whole lot better. And, to put this in perspective, I believe that Joey Meyer's tenure was seen as a pretty significant failure - certainly by the end it was.
I'm not sure exactly what conclusions to draw from this. On the one hand, if the parallels hold then the Hoya program isn't anywhere near rock bottom yet - so long as JT3 remains the Georgetown coach. On the other hand, DePaul has remained pretty awful since Joey Meyer left. To me, though, the fear that we will stay on this Blue Demonish path to oblivion if JT3 is let go is absolutely not a reason to retain him. Yes, it could happen. But if JT3 stays, I would think that the odds are even higher that it WILL happen.
Put it this way: Even knowing how poorly DePaul has done since Joey ceased to be the coach, do you think that any DePaul fan would argue today that the program would have done markedly better had they retained Meyer?