This morning, I got a text message from our old pal JGD. It read, "Alright, you've seen it all. Give me you ultimate prediction for the season." (I cleaned it up a bit.) What followed was a 30 minute, 30+ text message exchange that got dark in spots, even darker in others, and ended with the same confidence in our answers as before (read: none). I posed the question to the rest of the Casual Hoya "braintrust" and here are the results.
Chris Haines
First, let's start with what my head is predicting. I see us winning 3 of our 6 remaining games in the regular season, snagging a win in our first BET game, missing the tournament as one of the Next Four Out (or similar grouping), and ultimately getting a win or two in the NIT. Not overly delusional, not overly cynical. Just an over .500 ballclub capable of winning some games.
Now, my gut and my heart are "predicting" (you can just go ahead and swap in "hoping for" anywhere you see "predicting" from here on out) an entirely different ending to the season. I saw Isaac Copeland break out of his slump over the last three games. I've seen LJ Peak turn himself into a fairly complete offensive player in conference play. I've seen DSR rounding into the total DSR package. I've seen small, positive signs on defense despite the warts. I've seen us beat one of the top two teams in the conference on their home court and hold the best team to their lowest offensive output of the season. I've seen flashes of Jessie Govan: dominant stretch 5. I've seen Marcus Derrickson play with a lot more energy since returning from injury. I've seen Trey Mourning play solid minutes off the bench. I've seen flexible and dynamic lineups from the coaching staff. I've seen the rest of the Big East and come away largely unimpressed.
That's all super-delusional, but also, taken individually, not altogether untrue. My heart and gut thinks all of those things are going to start to come together for this team over the next three weeks and we're going to see the team we all thought we were going to see. We'll see the Hoyas win at least 4 of the remaining 6 games and probably a 5th as well. We'll see them take the Big East Tournament for the first time since 2007. We'll see them get into the tournament as a 7 seed and crash the second weekend for the first time since 2007 as well.
Now, I don't really think that scenario is going to play out. But, we've seen enough flashes that it could. And frankly, with all the excellent teams that we've had bomb out of the tournament, it feels right that a shaky team like this one would be the one to break the spell. So I allow my gut and heart to predict that for the Hoyas over the next few weeks, while actually thinking we won't actually reach those heights. The peaks that this team has had fuel one set of predictions and the time in between them fuel the more realistic set. So I say "why not us?" while thinking "you know damn well why not."
Bobby Bancroft
I've got them at 3-3 and then 1-1 in NYC and then the NIT.
SwordOfBrunner
@ Providence - win
vs Seton Hall - win
vs Xavier - loss
vs Butler - win
@ Marquette - win
@ Nova - loss
BET - we go 1-1, taking our record to 19-14, and placing us firmly on the bubble.
We'll have a compelling case, and some of our bad losses don't look as horrific as they did earlier in the season - Monmouth and UNC Asheville lead their conferences.
Radford still does though, and we only really have one impressive win with Wisconsin and Syracuse fairly underwhelming. The close calls vs Duke, Maryland, and UConn may end up sealing our fate.
I feel like we'll have to get to 20 wins to make it happen, which is possible with Isaac figuring out how to shoot recently, but certainly not likely.
So, I think we're NIT bound.
NYHoya
@ Providence - win
vs Seton Hall - win
vs Xavier - loss
vs Butler - win
@ Marquette - win
@ Nova - loss
I think we go 4-2 down the stretch, but still need two more wins in the BET to make the Tourney. The problem: if we go 4-2, we'll likely get the 4 seed in the Tourney, which means we'd have to beat Nova in the semis to get that second win in the BET.
Fuck it. I think we'll do it. We'll go 4-2 and win two games in the BET. We have to beat Nova at least once to make the Dance and I say we do.
Hope is a dangerous thing.
St. Patrick
@ Providence - loss
vs Seton Hall - win
vs Xavier - win
vs Butler - loss
@ Marquette - win
@ Nova - loss
Mild delusion time! Finish 17-14 regular season, end up with the BET 5 seed, beat #4 Seton Hall and upset #1 Nova before Xavier finally gets its revenge in the BET final.
So, 19-15 with two wins over Xavier, one over Nova and...yeah, that's basically it. Cuse and Wisconsin aren't very good. Probably should be in the NIT, but the seeding committee historically overrates us, so we get a 10 seed. From there, pray we get an underachieving high-major instead of, like, Monmouth or something.
Also, I just looked at Bracketology for the first time this year â how the hell does the Pac-12 have eight teams in? Who the hell have any of them beaten? Are we doing the thing where Arizona looks really good and then any team that beats them is automatically also really good? I hate that thing.
SirHoya
We soil the bed hard the rest of the regular season - only win is vs Butler, in honor of CX festivities and Penn Social's lack of sufficient quantities of rubbing alcohol.
However, a miracle run at MSG sees us win the whole damned thing and burst somebody else's bubble...
...only to be a 9 seed in the Dance, paired up with an 8 seed Cuse. In Maryland's 1 seed bracket. But, not faced with any seeds lower than us, we can't help but make the final four.
Only to lose to 11 seed Monmouth.
FML.
Chris Almeida
I'm not optimistic about our chances here. Though the team looked good yesterday, I've seen enough this year to stop believing in upward trends. I don't think that even the Butler or Seton Hall games are given. The fan in me wants to say that we finish 4-2, but I think that we'll finish 2-4, go 1-1 in the BET, and I'll stop watching college basketball forever.
@ Providence - loss
vs Seton Hall - win
vs Xavier - loss
vs Butler - loss
@ Marquette - win
@ Villanova - loss
hoyasincebirth
Hoyas go 4-2 down the stretch and 1-1 in BE play. Hoyas make the tournament as a 10 seed and make a run to the elite 8. Critics state that the Hoyas just got lucky in Post season play and that it's the regular season that really matters and JT3 should still be fired.
wadetandy
2-4 down the stretch with only wins against Butler and Seton Hall. Win one in the BET and make the NIT.
GyrationMaster
Kind of mixed here. Not too pessimistic, but not very optimistic either.
@ Providence - loss
vs Seton Hall - win
vs Xavier - loss
vs Butler - win
@ Marquette - win
@ Villanova - loss
I say we win one in the BET against either Seton Hall, Creighton, or Butler, then a loss to X or Nova, and then we end up in the NIT, as one of the First Four or Next Four out of the real deal. We get a home game, however, it's in McDonough, we win it, it's a wonderful crowd experience, and DSR gets a nice send-off much like Markel did two years ago.
WarmupEwing
Wins over Seton Hall and Butler. No one falls down the stairs at CX8. We win the 7-10 matchup in the BET against the Johnnies and somehow pull off an upset against 2-seed Xavier that Thursday - then lose to Providence Friday night. We zombie our way through the first two rounds of the NIT or whatever.
RunDSR
@ Providence - win
vs Seton Hall - win
vs Xavier - loss
vs Butler - win
@ Marquette - win
@ Nova - loss
Win 2 games in the BET, sneak into the tournament.
Hoya Saxual
@ Providence - Loss
vs Seton Hall - Win
vs Xavier - Loss
vs Butler - Win
@ Marquette - Win
@ Nova - Win (Yup. Not a typo.)
Is it really possible that a win over St. John's redeemed the collective hopes for the season that much? I'm going with yes, because being ridiculously, absurdly hopeful - at least for a day or two - is entirely more enjoyable that being sad.
Here's what I said in the Duke 10-Year Anniversary post: "A whiplash-inducing emotional rollercoaster that sees us on the bubble in early March. A trip to the finals of the BET. I'm not a bracketologist and I refuse to jinx the team further by saying anything else."
Nearly a month later, I stand by this conjecture. With all the weirdness that has gone on in other conferences this year, Georgetown has a chance to get into the NCAA tournament if they win 4/6 and go 2-1 in the BET. I think LJ Peak will continue to show why he was on that gold-medal winning U19 team this past summer. I think DSR will continue to be the player we've seen recently who will make the crazy pass because it's the only one that's there, and his instincts will ensure it pays off. I think Ike has finally shaken off whatever shooters'-block had stifled him in conference play. I think Hayes will be nailing hookers all over the court at MSG. Because if I don't think these things are the case, why bother watching? I don't enjoy pain that much.
That said, I'm not all sunshine and roses. They won't make it out of the first weekend and it'll be deja vu all over again.
OverTheHilltop
@ Providence - Loss
vs Seton Hall - Win
vs Xavier - Loss
vs Butler - Win
@ Marquette - Win
@ Nova - Loss
1-1 in BET.
Stranger things have happened than Georgetown making this year's NCAA Tournament. Like, in New Hampshire, Tuesday night. I would very much prefer to be wrong, but I don't see the Hoyas dancing.
What say you Hoyas fans? Are you cautiously optimistic? Completely delusional? Completely at a loss? Stuck in between? Hungry?