Hi Everyone! I've always appreciated the work put together by the guys at Hoya Prospectus and was sad to hear to that they wouldn't be posting this year. I always enjoyed their work and am thankful for their contribution to the online community and I hope that they can continue to participate.
On that note, I'm a huge stat junkie and I build a lot of models in and out of work, so I put together an excel macro to convert the play-by-play feed to the Tempo-Free Boxscore that the HP guys used to put together. To validate it, I compared my results to their boxscore for the Georgetown - Syracuse home game last year (because I always enjoy looking at those numbers) and tied out most numbers, but I'm off slightly on a few (Efficiency, TO Rate & Block Rate). This could be due to adjustments or differences in the factor weightings and if I have time later today / this week, I'll post the comparison and methodology that I'm using.
So with that, here is the box score from Friday night's game. I tied-out the aggregates from my play-by-play box score to the published box score so I'm pretty confident that the data validation at least went right.
|Home - Oregon||Visitor - Georgetown|
|1st Half||2nd Half||Total||1st Half||2nd Half||Total|
|(Dunk + Layup)%||40.0%||55.6%||50.0%||80.0%||61.1%||67.9%|
|(Dunk + Layup) Rate||14.5%||26.5%||20.5%||30.3%||49.8%||40.5%|
|2-Pt Jumper Rate||14.8%||17.5%||16.2%||20.5%||18.1%||19.2%|
|3-Pt Jumper Rate||32.1%||22.5%||27.4%||20.5%||15.9%||18.0%|
|Effictive Field Goal %||35.4%||58.0%||46.9%||46.2%||47.0%||46.6%|
|True Shooting %||52.2%||68.3%||60.0%||51.5%||52.3%||51.9%|
|Unforced TOV Rate||4.9%||7.5%||6.2%||2.6%||2.3%||2.4%|
|Forced TOV Rate||7.4%||10.0%||8.7%||12.8%||9.0%||10.8%|
So with that, my observations are below. For reference, here's the HP aggregate Tempo-Free Box from last year:
- The offense produced at a high level despite missing 14 threes which is encouraging for future contests. If we shot at our average 3P% from last year, our efficiency jumps 15 pts to 126. This is encouraging.
- Josh Smith is a monster on offense. While he likely won't be able to continue to shoot 76% every game, its reasonable that he should continue to shoot at a high percentage. Most importantly, he'll take away close-to-the basket possessions from Hopkins who converted a low percentage of close range shots last year.
- I separated the turnover statistics into turnovers by steals (forced) and other turnovers (unforced). The low unforced turnover rate is especially encouraging this early in the year.
- Our Assist Rate of 44% is about 20% below our average from last year. While Otto is some of this, I would expect the assist rate to revert back to the average from last year. The low assist rate may suggest room for improvement on offense.
- Georgetown was worked on the defensive glass, but performed at par on the offensive glass. I would have to re-watch the game, but I speculate that a lot of this is from Josh Smith's positioning. On offense, he was centered below the basket on most shots, but on defense, I noticed he was pulled away from the paint often and this yielded easy offensive rebounds for Oregon. With some coaching and adjustments, I think this can be corrected.
I'll try to post these going forward if people are interested and over time, I'm hoping to build out more analysis like Player Efficiency, Line-ups, Shot Charting and maybe try to chart some more stats that aren't posted (like post-ups, catch and shoot vs off the dribble) and such as time permits.