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Hi Everyone! I've always appreciated the work put together by the guys at Hoya Prospectus and was sad to hear to that they wouldn't be posting this year. I always enjoyed their work and am thankful for their contribution to the online community and I hope that they can continue to participate.
On that note, I'm a huge stat junkie and I build a lot of models in and out of work, so I put together an excel macro to convert the play-by-play feed to the Tempo-Free Boxscore that the HP guys used to put together. To validate it, I compared my results to their boxscore for the Georgetown - Syracuse home game last year (because I always enjoy looking at those numbers) and tied out most numbers, but I'm off slightly on a few (Efficiency, TO Rate & Block Rate). This could be due to adjustments or differences in the factor weightings and if I have time later today / this week, I'll post the comparison and methodology that I'm using.
So with that, here is the box score from Friday night's game. I tied-out the aggregates from my play-by-play box score to the published box score so I'm pretty confident that the data validation at least went right.
| Home - Oregon | Visitor - Georgetown | ||||||
| 1st Half | 2nd Half | Total | 1st Half | 2nd Half | Total | ||
| Pace | 34 | 34 | |||||
| Points | 37 | 45 | 82 | 34 | 41 | 75 | |
| Efficiency | 115.2 | 132.1 | 123.9 | 101.8 | 125.8 | 111.9 | |
| Dunk % | N/A | 50.0% | 50.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | |
| Layup% | 40.0% | 57.1% | 50.0% | 75.0% | 56.3% | 62.5% | |
| (Dunk + Layup)% | 40.0% | 55.6% | 50.0% | 80.0% | 61.1% | 67.9% | |
| 2-Pt Jumper% | 33.3% | 71.4% | 53.8% | 50.0% | 37.5% | 43.8% | |
| 2-Pt% | 36.4% | 62.5% | 51.9% | 66.7% | 53.8% | 59.1% | |
| 3-Pt Jumper% | 23.1% | 33.3% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 14.3% | 6.7% | |
| Jumper% | 55.6% | 80.0% | 68.4% | 50.0% | 44.4% | 47.1% | |
| FT% | 76.9% | 88.9% | 81.8% | 62.5% | 71.4% | 66.7% | |
| Dunk Rate | 0.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | |
| Layup Rate | 12.4% | 17.5% | 14.9% | 20.5% | 36.2% | 28.8% | |
| (Dunk + Layup) Rate | 14.5% | 26.5% | 20.5% | 30.3% | 49.8% | 40.5% | |
| 2-Pt Jumper Rate | 14.8% | 17.5% | 16.2% | 20.5% | 18.1% | 19.2% | |
| 2-Pt Rate | 29.4% | 44.1% | 36.7% | 50.8% | 67.9% | 59.7% | |
| 3-Pt Jumper Rate | 32.1% | 22.5% | 27.4% | 20.5% | 15.9% | 18.0% | |
| Jumper Rate | 47.0% | 40.1% | 43.6% | 41.0% | 34.0% | 37.3% | |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 20.3% | 24.6% | 18.4% | 14.3% | 16.2% | |
| Effictive Field Goal % | 35.4% | 58.0% | 46.9% | 46.2% | 47.0% | 46.6% | |
| True Shooting % | 52.2% | 68.3% | 60.0% | 51.5% | 52.3% | 51.9% | |
| Assist Rate | 71.4% | 76.9% | 75.0% | 41.7% | 46.7% | 44.4% | |
| Unforced TOV Rate | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | |
| Forced TOV Rate | 7.4% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 12.8% | 9.0% | 10.8% | |
| TOV Rate | 12.3% | 17.5% | 14.9% | 15.3% | 11.3% | 13.2% | |
| Block Rate | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 10.2% | |
| OR% | 40.0% | 57.1% | 47.1% | 33.3% | 40.0% | 36.8% | |
| DR% | 66.7% | 60.0% | 63.2% | 60.0% | 42.9% | 52.9% | |
So with that, my observations are below. For reference, here's the HP aggregate Tempo-Free Box from last year:
- The offense produced at a high level despite missing 14 threes which is encouraging for future contests. If we shot at our average 3P% from last year, our efficiency jumps 15 pts to 126. This is encouraging.
- Josh Smith is a monster on offense. While he likely won't be able to continue to shoot 76% every game, its reasonable that he should continue to shoot at a high percentage. Most importantly, he'll take away close-to-the basket possessions from Hopkins who converted a low percentage of close range shots last year.
- I separated the turnover statistics into turnovers by steals (forced) and other turnovers (unforced). The low unforced turnover rate is especially encouraging this early in the year.
- Our Assist Rate of 44% is about 20% below our average from last year. While Otto is some of this, I would expect the assist rate to revert back to the average from last year. The low assist rate may suggest room for improvement on offense.
- Georgetown was worked on the defensive glass, but performed at par on the offensive glass. I would have to re-watch the game, but I speculate that a lot of this is from Josh Smith's positioning. On offense, he was centered below the basket on most shots, but on defense, I noticed he was pulled away from the paint often and this yielded easy offensive rebounds for Oregon. With some coaching and adjustments, I think this can be corrected.
I'll try to post these going forward if people are interested and over time, I'm hoping to build out more analysis like Player Efficiency, Line-ups, Shot Charting and maybe try to chart some more stats that aren't posted (like post-ups, catch and shoot vs off the dribble) and such as time permits.
