The Hoyas are currently sitting in third place in the Big East after their dismantling of the Irish on Monday Night. The wins this past weekend have put Georgetown in full control of their destiny with regards to the deeply desired double bye. Georgetown is guaranteed a double bye with a win over Marquette on Saturday. Georgetown can also guarantee a double bye, however, before Saturday depending on the outcome of a few games tonight.
Before you go down the long, winded road of seeding scenarios, I offer the following synopsis: Georgetown can finish as high as 2nd or as low as 6th. If the Marquette beats Cincinnati and USF loses a game the Hoyas are guaranteed a double bye. Marquette loses to Cincinnati, the Hoyas have a chance at 2nd in the conference, or can fall to 6th.
(UPDATED: Previously stated worst Hoyas could finish was 5th, it is actually 6th)
(More After the Jump)
Here are the current standings:
Big East Conference Standings
(updated 2.29.2012 at 3:56 AM EST)
|Marquette Golden Eagles||13||3||24||5|
|Notre Dame Fighting Irish||12||5||20||10|
|South Florida Bulls||11||5||18||11|
|Seton Hall Pirates||8||9||19||10|
|West Virginia Mountaineers||8||9||18||12|
|St. John's Red Storm||6||10||13||16|
|Rutgers Scarlet Knights||5||11||13||16|
|DePaul Blue Demons||2||15||11||18|
Below, I break down the various standings scenarios, highlight tonight's action, tell you who you should be rooting for, and tell you where you can follow the action live.
THE GAMES THAT EFFECT SEEDING:
MARQUETTE @ CINCINNATI 7PM ESPN2/ESPN3
- Marquette vs. Cincinnati is a interesting game for the Hoyas. If Marquette wins, the Hoyas are assured of a top 4 finish and a double bye with a USF loss, but guarantees they can finish no better than third even if they beat Marquette on Saturday. If Cincinnati wins, the Hoyas would take 2nd place with a win over Marquette, but could tumble to 6th with a series of unfortunate events. Cheering in this game comes down to how confident you are in us beating Marquette. Cincinnati needs this game more to secure their birth in the NCAA tournament and are playing at home. Either way this game shakes out there's a silver lining for Hoya fans and it's sure to be a close competitive game.
SOUTH FLORIDA @ LOUISVILLE 7PM MASN/ESPN3
- If South Florida were to win their last two games against Louisville and WV they would not only be guaranteed at least the 5 seed in the BET they would lock up an NCAA bid as well. South Florida is one of the teams that could pass the Hoyas if they Hoyas stumble in Milwaukee. In order for South Florida to pass Georgetown in the standings, the Bulls would need to win out and the Hoyas would need to lose on Saturday. Louisville cannot pass the Hoyas no matter what. Everyone should be rooting for Louisville to eliminate USF from stealing our double bye. USF will want this game more to secure an NCAA bid, but Louisville is at home.
TIE BREAKER SCENARIOS:
- When teams are tied at the end of the year the seeding for the BET are determined by a series of tie breakers. A two team tie is broken based on their head to head play. If the teams split the tie is broken by looking at their record against the 1st place team. If one team has a better record they get the higher seed. It is important to note that if teams have played that 1st place team a different number of times the tie is not necessarily broken if one of the tied teams could tie the record of the other team if they had played the same number of games. Team A is 1-1 against team #1 and Team B is 0-1. This would not break the tie because Team B could have beaten the #1 team if they played the same amount of games as Team A did. Likewise 0-1 does not beat 0-2 and 1-0 does note beat 1-1. If a tie cannot be broken against the first place team they move on down the line until the tie is broken.
- A multi-team tie 3+ teams is broken first by a mini conference just looking at the standings between the tied teams. If the tie cannot be broken by the mini conference then the same procedure of looking at the teams record vs. the best team is used.
So lets run through the scenarios:
Hoyas beat Marquette Scenarios:
- Cincinnati beats Marquette; ND beats Providence: Hoyas 2nd, ND 3rd, Marquette 4th
- Marquette beats Cincinnati; ND beat Providence: Hoyas 3rd Marquette 2nd, ND 4th
- Cincinnati beats Marquette; Providence beats ND: Hoyas 2nd, Marquette 3rd, ND 4th (or worse)
- Marquette beats Cincinnati; Providence beats ND: Hoyas 3rd Marquette 2nd, ND 4th (or worse)
Hoyas lose to Marquette Scenarios:
There are too many moving parts to break it down the way I did above, so let's try a much more complicated way:
These are how the tiebreakers would work if the bolded teams all finish with the same 12-6 record:
Hoyas, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, South Florida, and Louisville:
- 3 seed Cincinnati (3-1 win tie breaker), 4 seed Hoyas (3-1 lose tie breaker), 5 seed ND (2-2), 6 seed Louisville (1-3), 7 seed USF (0-4)
Hoyas, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, South Florida
- 3 seed Cincinnati (2-1 win tie breaker), 4 seed Hoyas (2-1 lose tiebreaker) 5 seed ND (1-2 win tie breaker), 6 seed USF (1-2 lose tie breaker)
Hoyas, Notre Dame, South Florida, Louisville
- 3 seed Hoyas (3-0), 4 seed ND (2-1), 5 seed Louisville (1-2), 6 seed USF (0-3)
Hoyas, Notre Dame, Cincinnati , Louisville
- 3 seed Cincinnati (3-0), 4 seed Hoyas (2-1), 5 seed ND (1-2), 6 seed Louisville
Hoyas, Cincinnati, South Florida, Louisville
- 4 seed Cincinnati (3-1 but win 2nd tie breaker), 5 seed Hoyas (3-1 but lose tie breaker), 6 seed USF (1-3 win tie breaker), 7 seed Louisville (1-3 lose tie breaker)
Hoyas, Notre Dame, South Florida
- 3 seed Hoyas (2-0), 4 seed ND (1-1), 5 seed USF (0-2)
Hoyas, Notre Dame, Louisville
- 3 seed Hoyas (2-0), 4 seed ND (1-1), 5 seed Louisville (0-2)
Hoyas, Notre Dame, Cincinnati (if USF is 11-7 not 13-5 if USF is 13-5 then move everyone down a seed)
- 3 seed Cincinnati (2-0), 4 seed Hoyas (1-1), 5 seed ND (0-2)
Hoyas, Cincinnati, Louisville
- 4 seed Cincinnati (2-0) 5 seed Hoyas (1-1), 6 seed Louisville (0-2)
Hoyas, Cincinnati, South Florida
- 4 seed Cincinnati (1-1 wins tie breaker), 5 seed Hoyas (1-1), 6 seed USF (1-1)
Hoyas, Louisville, South Florida
- 4 seed Hoyas (2-0), 5 seed Louisville (1-1), 6 seed USF (0-2)
Hoyas, Notre Dame (if South Florida is11-7)
- 3 seed Hoyas, 4 seed ND
Hoyas, Cincinnati (if South Florida is 11-7)
- 4 seed Cincinnati, 5 seed Hoyas
Hoyas, Notre Dame (if South Florida is 13-5)
- 4 seed Hoyas, 5 seed ND
Hoyas, Cincinnati (if South Florida is 13-5)
- 5 seed Cincinnati, 6 seed Hoyas
- 4 seed Hoyas, 5 seed USF
- 4 seed Hoyas, 5 seed Louisville
Hoyas (no one else at 12-6) (USF Loses out)
- 4 seed Hoyas, 5 seed Louisville or Cincinnati depending on if cinci loses 2 games or 1.
Hoyas (no one else at 12-6) (USF Wins Out)
- 4 seed USF, 5 seed Hoyas
We lose any tie breaker involving in Cincinnati so we want to avoid being tied with them.
We get a top 4 seed if:
1) we beat Marquette
2) ND loses to Providence and USF loses once
3) Cincinnati loses once (ie tonight to Marquette) and USF loses once
We don't get a top 4 seed:
If we lose to Marquette, Notre Dame beats Providence, and either Cincinnati or South Florida win out. Worst case scenario is that USF, ND, and Cincinnati all win out. We drop to 6th place.
SO HERE IS THE BIG QUESTION CASUALTIES...
Are we so confident that Georgetown will win on Saturday that we hope Marquette loses tonight in order to have the upside of finishing second in the Big East, after being picked to finish tenth?
Or are we worried about Saturday and hope Marquette wins tonight to guarantee we get a double-bye with a USF loss, but can finish no higher than third?