The Path to the Dance

Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sport

Time to put St. John's in the rear view mirror and focus on the road ahead.  Here's what the Hoyas need to do to make the damn Dance.  Will they? No idea, but this is what needs to happen, and I firmly believe that depending on what wins they get, the Hoyas can get into the Tournament at 9-9 in the Big East.


Game One: at Seton Hall

Georgetown absolutely must win this game on Thursday night.  A loss won't kill the Tourney dream, but it would require a 4-game winning streak to end the season in order to get back in the picture.  No team deserves to make the Dance if it loses to Seton fucking Hall twice in one season.  Verdict: MUST WIN (16-10, 7-7)


Game Two: home v. Xavier
The Hoyas won't have much time to relax after the Seton Hall game and host Xavier just two days later at Verizon.  The Hoyas played Xavier well before the infamous collapse in Cincinnati so this is a winnable game and also one that Georgetown needs to have, at home, against a likely Tournament team.  Verdict: MUST WIN.  (17-10, 8-7)


Game Three: at Marquette
The Hoyas get 5 days to prepare for the rematch against Buzz and the Lightyears, who will probably be 8-6 in the Big East heading into this game and fighting for its postseason life.  Marquette has a brutal final stretch in Conference, finishing with games against Georgetown, Villanova, Providence and St. John's after Creighton and DePaul.  The Georgetown game will be a must win for Marquette and though the Hoyas would like to take this one on the road to get to 9 wins in the Big East, I think it's one Georgetown can afford to drop. Verdict: WOULD LOVE TO HAVE BUT NOT MUST WIN. (17-11, 8-8)


Game Four: home v. Creighton
This is the game that represents Georgetown's best opportunity to make the Dance.  The Hoyas played the Blue Jays well on the road and held Doug McDermott to his lowest scoring output in the Big East.  Repeat that performance at home in what will be Nate Lubick and Markel Starks' final game at Verizon and in front of a boisterous home crowd and...wait..what's that..they scheduled Georgetown's final home game on a Tuesday night? Oh, shit.  Verdict: MUST WIN (18-11, 9-8)


Game Five: at Villanova
Assuming the above plays out, the Hoyas would be heading into the season finale at Villanova firmly in the field as likely one of the final teams in.  A loss at Villanova isn't going to push Georgetown out of the field, though a win would certainly cement its place in it even if it face-plants in the Big East Tournament.  Don't see the Hoyas winning this one with Nova playing for a 2-seed, but crazier things have happened. Verdict: WOULD LOVE TO HAVE BUT NOT MUST WIN. (18-12, 9-9)


Game Six: Big East Tournament Round 1 v likely DePaul or Butler
Georgetown will enter the Big East Tournament on the Bubble but will have a resume with impressive wins against VCU, Kansas State, Michigan State, Xavier and Creighton to go along with wins against fellow Bubble teamers St. John's and Providence.  No team from a lesser Conference (remember, the Big East is the 3rd rated Conference for RPI) will have better wins.  A loss in the 1st round of the Big East Tournament would ruin everything, but a win against DePaul or Butler would get the Hoyas IN the field regardless of what happens in the quarterfinals against one of the top four finishers. Verdict: MUST WIN (19-12, 10-9)


At least that's what I think.

One Game At A Time.

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