Hoyas Projected To Win Big East

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

TGIF!

Not much news to report in HoyaLand today, but here's a casual 'Early Big East Projection' from Real GM Basketball that has the Hoyas winning the Big East next season.

Team

Proj CW

Proj CL

Proj Off

Proj Def

Last Off

Last Def

T100

Ret Min

Ret Poss

Georgetown

12

6

109.8

88.5

107.7

85.4

6

82%

79%

Marquette

12

6

113.5

92.2

112.4

93.2

6

56%

53%

Creighton

10

8

117.1

98.7

116.8

94.3

0

65%

66%

Butler

10

8

108.7

91.6

108.5

93.4

1

66%

62%

Villanova

9

9

108.5

92.7

105.3

90.4

6

76%

78%

St. John's

9

9

104.7

90.5

97.9

92.2

6

89%

91%

Providence

9

9

110.6

95.7

107.0

95.3

3

86%

83%

Xavier

8

10

109.1

95.3

104.5

95.4

3

58%

63%

Seton Hall

7

11

105.2

94.7

102.9

97.5

1

70%

73%

DePaul

4

14

108.4

104.1

104.1

104.6

1

56%

66%


Georgetown:

Greg Whittington was injured in January, and after his injury Georgetown refocused itself around Otto Porter. Porter's PPG production almost doubled and Georgetown went from being a fringe bubble team to the Big East champion. But the Hoyas were still an over-achieving team and Georgetown lost to Florida Gulf Coast in their opening game in the NCAA tournament. That's a fair narrative on the season. And given that narrative I understand why many people do not view Georgetown as a Top 25 team without Otto Porter.

But let's remember that John Thompson III has taken the Hoyas to the post-season in 7 of his 8 seasons, and usually with a dominant Big East squad. His average NCAA tournament seed in those seven years has been just better than the 4-line. To do that he has had to replace a lot of NBA players over the years from Jeff Green to Roy Hibbert to Greg Monroe to now Otto Porter.

The real question is on offense. Georgetown might not quite be as good offensively as they were in February and March where they posted an adjusted offensive rating of 113.1, but the model expects them to come close at 109.8. Markel Starks and D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera are an elite offensive back-court. And Nate Lubick has been solid, if passive in his first three years.

The real question is which forward runs the high post attack the team utilized last year. Mikael Hopkins was truly dreadful in that role early in the year, but he was still a Top 100 athlete out of high school. It is possible Hopkins will learn from all his turnovers last season. And if Hopkins isn't better, the team adds UCLA transfer Josh Smith mid-season. Smith was once a dominant player at UCLA but conditioning and effort issue have prevented him from reaching his full potential.

Regardless, the defense should be dominant again. The team brings back 82% of its minutes from one of the nation's best defenses. And a healthy Greg Whittington should be able to replicate a lot of what Porter did defensively. JT3 often referred to Whittington as his best and most versatile defender before his injury.


Hooray! For the complete rundown of the Conference as well as how the model was created to derive these results, click HERE.

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