FanPost

Elon & Kansas Tempo-Free Box Scores

Sorry for the delay in putting these together - I was out of the country during both games with limited internet access and when I got back, it was a rush to get everything ready for Christmas. But now I have a week off to hang out in my mother's basement (current location) and focus on basketball stats.

Home - Georgetown Visitor - Elon
1st Half 2nd Half Total 1st Half 2nd Half Total
Pace 33 33
Points 39 46 85 40 36 76
Efficiency 124.3 145.2 134.1 118.9 113.7 115.7
Dunk % N/A 100.0% 100.0% N/A 100.0% 100.0%
Layup% 56.3% 77.8% 64.0% 100.0% 75.0% 87.5%
(Dunk + Layup)% 56.3% 80.0% 65.4% 100.0% 80.0% 88.9%
2-Pt Jumper% 12.5% 57.1% 33.3% 60.0% 27.3% 37.5%
2-Pt% 41.7% 70.6% 53.7% 77.8% 43.8% 56.0%
3-Pt Jumper% 60.0% 50.0% 54.5% 47.1% 41.7% 44.8%
Jumper% 30.8% 53.8% 42.3% 50.0% 34.8% 42.2%
FT% 90.9% 65.0% 74.2% 25.0% 70.0% 50.0%
Dunk Rate 0.0% 3.0% 1.4% 0.0% 2.7% 1.4%
Layup Rate 43.4% 26.6% 35.4% 11.3% 10.7% 11.0%
(Dunk + Layup) Rate 48.7% 30.5% 39.6% 11.9% 15.4% 13.7%
2-Pt Jumper Rate 21.7% 20.7% 21.2% 14.1% 29.4% 21.9%
2-Pt Rate 70.4% 51.2% 60.8% 26.0% 44.8% 35.6%
3-Pt Jumper Rate 13.6% 17.8% 15.6% 47.9% 32.1% 39.8%
Jumper Rate 35.3% 38.5% 36.8% 61.9% 61.5% 61.7%
FT Rate 13.4% 26.6% 19.7% 10.1% 12.0% 11.1%
Effective Field Goal % 50.0% 71.7% 59.6% 73.1% 51.8% 62.0%
True Shooting % 57.6% 72.3% 64.7% 67.8% 55.6% 61.4%
Assist Rate 76.9% 66.7% 71.4% 66.7% 75.0% 70.4%
Unforced TOV Rate 5.4% 2.9% 4.2% 5.6% 2.7% 4.1%
Forced TOV Rate 2.7% 2.9% 2.8% 11.2% 10.7% 10.9%
TOV Rate 8.1% 5.9% 7.0% 16.9% 13.3% 15.0%
Block Rate 0.0% 4.3% 1.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7%
OR% 27.8% 15.4% 22.6% 14.3% 31.3% 23.3%
DR% 85.7% 68.8% 76.7% 72.2% 84.6% 77.4%
  • Elon Heat Map
  • The offense in the first half was carried by strong 3-pt shooting. Despite having a high number of opportunities close to the rim, Georgetown converted these opportunities at a below average rate. In the second half, Georgetown improved on their offensive efficiency by shooting over 70% from 2.
  • In the second half, Georgetown posted its highest eFG% of the season at 71.7%, but failed to set a season high for TS% due to 65% foul shooting.
  • Georgetown also had one of its best days of the year in terms of net possessions. The Hoyas turned the ball over at 7% rate compared to a 15% rate for Elon, two-thirds of which were forced by Georgetown steals.
  • Rebounding was mixed. After dominating the boards in the prior two contests, Georgetown's defensive rebounding against Elon was above average, but the Hoyas did not perform well on the offensive boards.
  • And the defense...the defense was not good. Georgetown allowed Elon to shoot 3's on almost 40% of their possessions and they converted these at a 44.8% rate, both of which were the highest allowed for Georgetown in a single game this year. Teams are going to have good shooting nights, but its important to limit those opportunities when those days occur.
  • The defense was even worse inside, where Elon converted 88.9% of their close opportunities. After progressing over the first seven games of the season, Georgetown's defense has collapsed over the last 5 halves. JTIII needs to get this fixed.

Visitor - Georgetown Home - Kansas
1st Half 2nd Half Total 1st Half 2nd Half Total
Pace 33 37
Points 34 30 64 44 40 84
Efficiency 114.1 88.7 100.8 128.0 116.5 122.3
Dunk % 33.3% N/A 33.3% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Layup% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 72.7% 73.3%
(Dunk + Layup)% 63.6% 75.0% 68.4% 83.3% 76.9% 78.9%
2-Pt Jumper% 28.6% 23.1% 25.0% 71.4% 0.0% 41.7%
2-Pt% 50.0% 42.9% 46.2% 76.9% 55.6% 64.5%
3-Pt Jumper% 33.3% 16.7% 26.7% 37.5% 33.3% 35.7%
Jumper% 31.3% 21.1% 25.7% 53.3% 18.2% 38.5%
FT% 53.8% 60.0% 57.1% 78.9% 56.0% 65.9%
Dunk Rate 8.0% 0.0% 3.9% 5.5% 5.0% 5.2%
Layup Rate 21.2% 20.2% 20.7% 11.0% 27.5% 19.6%
(Dunk + Layup) Rate 33.6% 21.9% 27.4% 17.5% 39.4% 28.2%
2-Pt Jumper Rate 18.6% 32.8% 25.9% 19.3% 12.5% 15.7%
2-Pt Rate 52.2% 54.7% 53.3% 36.7% 51.9% 43.9%
3-Pt Jumper Rate 23.9% 15.2% 19.4% 22.0% 15.0% 18.3%
Jumper Rate 42.4% 48.0% 45.3% 41.3% 27.5% 34.0%
FT Rate 15.5% 17.0% 16.3% 23.5% 28.1% 25.9%
Effictive Field Goal % 50.0% 38.9% 44.4% 69.0% 54.2% 61.1%
True Shooting % 52.0% 44.6% 48.3% 74.9% 57.1% 65.3%
Assist Rate 66.7% 50.0% 59.1% 69.2% 75.0% 72.0%
Unforced TOV Rate 7.9% 2.5% 5.2% 8.2% 5.0% 6.5%
Forced TOV Rate 5.3% 12.6% 9.0% 10.9% 7.5% 9.1%
TOV Rate 13.2% 15.1% 14.2% 19.2% 12.4% 15.6%
Block Rate 7.4% 11.1% 9.3% 9.5% 16.7% 13.3%
OR% 33.3% 22.2% 27.8% 22.2% 44.4% 37.0%
DR% 77.8% 55.6% 63.0% 66.7% 77.8% 72.2%
  • Kansas Heat Map
  • The heat map would be beautiful if it were a tree in autumn but unfortunately it represents Georgetown's performance at a top opponent in December.
  • I don't think that the offense was too bad in the first half against a very good defense. Georgetown's shooting rates were close to average and the Hoyas converted 68.4% of their close to the rim shots against a team that blocked 13.3% of Georgetown shot attempts. Kansas did do a good job of limiting quality opportunities and forcing the Hoyas to take low percentage jump-shots.
  • Georgetown's offensive efficiency fell apart once the game was out of hand, but for the meaningful possessions I think the numbers suggest that this was an average performance against a good defense. The rebounding rates and the turnover rates weren't too bad compared to Georgetown's other performances this year.
  • On defense, the Hoyas continued their streak of poor performances throughout the whole game. Georgetown was dominated at the rim, allowing Kansas to shoot almost 80%. In the first half, it may look like Georgetown did a good job of limiting good opportunities, but the high foul rate suggests that the result of Kansas getting the ball down low led to free throws more often than high percentage shots.
  • Quick note on fouls: There is overwhelming statistical evidence that home teams do receive more foul calls, but the difference is much less than I think our comments would suggest. Teams that can generate quality offensive opportunities (by forcing defensive mistakes or exploiting individual match- ups) will generate more fouls. Therefore, I'd say that Georgetown's poor team defense and the advantage of Kansas's front court was much more responsible for the foul difference than any ref bias.

  • Quick note on fouls (II): Bilas was spot-on with his concern about Georgetown's low net-foul differential for a top-team. On defense, I think this is a result of the team-defense not yet being where it needs to be. There are some signs that this could be a great defensive team, but there have been too many instances of Georgetown falling behind defensively and giving up good opportunities in the paint. On offense, this is one of the fair critiques of the JTIII teams: Geogetown does not use its athletic advantage enough in its offense to generate fouls. Teams that can generate high foul rates can reduce volatility and therefore limit the potential for upsets.

Adjusted 3-pt Makes

This doesn't account for shot selection, but can help to calm down everyone's emotional swings by trying to adjust for volatility. A positive number indicates that the expected points were greater than the realized points. For players w/ 25+ attempts, shooting percentages are from this season and if not shooting percentages for each player are from the 2012-2013 season when available. Otherwise, the team's 3-pt percentage for the 2013-2014 season is used in the calculation for each player.

ELON -1.0 / GTOWN -7.0 / ELON +6.0

KU -0.2 / GTOWN +3.1 / GTOWN + 3.3

Adjusting for volatility, its clear why the Elon game is concerning: Elon's a good shooting team and Georgetown needed the benefit of some volatility in order to beat them. And as for the Kansas game, well...even a lucky day wouldn't have helped the Hoyas too much.

    Stay Casual, my friends.

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