FanPost

Wright State vs Georgetown Tempo Free Box Score

NOTE: Georgetown has not yet released the full play-by-play data for the game, so I pieced it together from information published by Wright State and ESPN. The play-by-play feeds don’t exactly tie out to the box scores at each site, but I think that its close enough to produce the tables and analyze the information.

Home - Georgeotwn Visitor - Wright State
1st Half 2nd Half Total 1st Half 2nd Half Total
Pace 35 37
Points 50 38 88 31 39 70
Efficiency 149.0 99.9 122.9 97.8 113.3 104.8
Dunk % 0.0% 100.0% 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Layup% 62.5% 53.8% 57.1% 55.6% 30.0% 42.1%
(Dunk + Layup)% 55.6% 57.1% 56.5% 60.0% 36.4% 47.6%
2-Pt Jumper% 50.0% 33.3% 45.5% 33.3% 50.0% 38.5%
2-Pt% 52.9% 52.9% 52.9% 47.4% 40.0% 44.1%
3-Pt Jumper% 61.5% 22.2% 45.5% 27.3% 30.8% 29.2%
Jumper% 75.0% 60.0% 71.4% 50.0% 75.0% 60.0%
FT% 100.0% 53.8% 64.7% 100.0% 83.3% 86.4%
Dunk Rate 2.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4%
Layup Rate 20.8% 29.3% 25.3% 22.1% 24.4% 23.3%
(Dunk + Layup) Rate 26.1% 37.4% 32.0% 28.0% 31.5% 29.7%
2-Pt Jumper Rate 20.8% 6.8% 13.3% 22.1% 9.8% 15.9%
2-Pt Rate 46.8% 44.1% 45.2% 50.0% 41.3% 45.6%
3-Pt Jumper Rate 33.7% 20.3% 26.5% 27.0% 31.8% 29.4%
Jumper Rate 54.5% 27.0% 39.8% 49.1% 41.5% 45.3%
FT 9.3% 26.3% 18.4% 4.4% 19.8% 12.1%
Effictive Field Goal % 70.0% 46.2% 58.9% 45.0% 42.9% 44.0%
True Shooting % 74.6% 50.7% 62.0% 48.8% 54.3% 51.7%
Assist Rate 64.7% 54.5% 60.7% 66.7% 40.0% 54.5%
Unforced TOV Rate 5.2% 6.7% 6.0% 9.8% 7.3% 8.5%
Forced TOV Rate 7.8% 8.9% 8.4% 12.3% 4.9% 8.5%
TOV Rate 13.0% 15.7% 14.4% 22.1% 12.2% 17.1%
Block Rate 10.0% 7.7% 8.9% 6.7% 0.0% 3.4%
OR% 46.2% 33.3% 38.2% 33.3% 30.0% 31.6%
DR% 66.7% 70.0% 68.4% 53.8% 66.7% 61.8%

• Well, the first half was certainly fun and 8/13 3-pt shooting helped to pull up the Georgetown averages from the Oregon game. 45% shooting from 2-pt and 3-pt jump shots likely means that Georgetown benefited from a little luck in this game.

• In the first half, Wright State tried to defend Josh Smith by trapping him in the paint with help defenders, which resulted in a higher turnover rate, but also more spacing and open jump shots. The reduction in lay-up and dunk opportunities was primarily transferred to 3-pt shot attempts instead of lower-efficiency 2-pt jump shots.

• The 46% offensive rebounding rate (6/13) was also a key factor in the high 1st half efficiency rate. • Turnover rates were higher than the Oregon game, but still below the 2012-2013 rate of 20%. The turnover rates are worth monitoring because turnover differential is the largest explanatory factor for NCAA upsets. So let’s hope the turnover rate stays low.

Adjusted 3PT Makes

Despite being one of the most efficient shots on the floor, three point shot makes can be volatile from game to game and result in some emotional swings from our fanbase. So, going forward I’m going to add the change in net points if each 3pt shooter shot at their long term average. For now, we’ll use last year’s data until we reach a sufficient sample size and assume that freshman shoot at last year’s team average. Also, this does not adjust for quality of shot. Eventually, I hope that we can gather enough data to do so, but for now the results will likely be biased higher if a team is shooting against a better defense and lower if a team is shooting against a weaker defense.

A positive number indicates that the expected points were greater than the realized points.

Georgetown vs Oregon: GTOWN +11.3 / OREG +4.5 / NET + 6.8 GTOWN

Wright State vs Georgetown: WRGT +5.9 / GTOWN -6.3 / NET +12.2 WRGT

Hopefully this shows that Georgetown played closer to Oregon then what the final score showed and that the Wright State game could have been closer to the 10 pt line.

With three games this week, I think we have a great opportunity to learn more about this team and I’ll keep working on building out the analysis.

Stay Casual, my friends.

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