FanPost

Georgetown vs Oregon Tempo-Free Box Score

Hi Everyone! I've always appreciated the work put together by the guys at Hoya Prospectus and was sad to hear to that they wouldn't be posting this year. I always enjoyed their work and am thankful for their contribution to the online community and I hope that they can continue to participate.

On that note, I'm a huge stat junkie and I build a lot of models in and out of work, so I put together an excel macro to convert the play-by-play feed to the Tempo-Free Boxscore that the HP guys used to put together. To validate it, I compared my results to their boxscore for the Georgetown - Syracuse home game last year (because I always enjoy looking at those numbers) and tied out most numbers, but I'm off slightly on a few (Efficiency, TO Rate & Block Rate). This could be due to adjustments or differences in the factor weightings and if I have time later today / this week, I'll post the comparison and methodology that I'm using.

So with that, here is the box score from Friday night's game. I tied-out the aggregates from my play-by-play box score to the published box score so I'm pretty confident that the data validation at least went right.

Home - Oregon Visitor - Georgetown
1st Half 2nd Half Total 1st Half 2nd Half Total
Pace 34 34
Points 37 45 82 34 41 75
Efficiency 115.2 132.1 123.9 101.8 125.8 111.9
Dunk % N/A 50.0% 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Layup% 40.0% 57.1% 50.0% 75.0% 56.3% 62.5%
(Dunk + Layup)% 40.0% 55.6% 50.0% 80.0% 61.1% 67.9%
2-Pt Jumper% 33.3% 71.4% 53.8% 50.0% 37.5% 43.8%
2-Pt% 36.4% 62.5% 51.9% 66.7% 53.8% 59.1%
3-Pt Jumper% 23.1% 33.3% 27.3% 0.0% 14.3% 6.7%
Jumper% 55.6% 80.0% 68.4% 50.0% 44.4% 47.1%
FT% 76.9% 88.9% 81.8% 62.5% 71.4% 66.7%
Dunk Rate 0.0% 5.0% 2.5% 5.1% 4.5% 4.8%
Layup Rate 12.4% 17.5% 14.9% 20.5% 36.2% 28.8%
(Dunk + Layup) Rate 14.5% 26.5% 20.5% 30.3% 49.8% 40.5%
2-Pt Jumper Rate 14.8% 17.5% 16.2% 20.5% 18.1% 19.2%
2-Pt Rate 29.4% 44.1% 36.7% 50.8% 67.9% 59.7%
3-Pt Jumper Rate 32.1% 22.5% 27.4% 20.5% 15.9% 18.0%
Jumper Rate 47.0% 40.1% 43.6% 41.0% 34.0% 37.3%
FT Rate 28.9% 20.3% 24.6% 18.4% 14.3% 16.2%
Effictive Field Goal % 35.4% 58.0% 46.9% 46.2% 47.0% 46.6%
True Shooting % 52.2% 68.3% 60.0% 51.5% 52.3% 51.9%
Assist Rate 71.4% 76.9% 75.0% 41.7% 46.7% 44.4%
Unforced TOV Rate 4.9% 7.5% 6.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.4%
Forced TOV Rate 7.4% 10.0% 8.7% 12.8% 9.0% 10.8%
TOV Rate 12.3% 17.5% 14.9% 15.3% 11.3% 13.2%
Block Rate 4.2% 4.0% 4.1% 7.7% 12.1% 10.2%
OR% 40.0% 57.1% 47.1% 33.3% 40.0% 36.8%
DR% 66.7% 60.0% 63.2% 60.0% 42.9% 52.9%

So with that, my observations are below. For reference, here's the HP aggregate Tempo-Free Box from last year:

  • The offense produced at a high level despite missing 14 threes which is encouraging for future contests. If we shot at our average 3P% from last year, our efficiency jumps 15 pts to 126. This is encouraging.
  • Josh Smith is a monster on offense. While he likely won't be able to continue to shoot 76% every game, its reasonable that he should continue to shoot at a high percentage. Most importantly, he'll take away close-to-the basket possessions from Hopkins who converted a low percentage of close range shots last year.
  • I separated the turnover statistics into turnovers by steals (forced) and other turnovers (unforced). The low unforced turnover rate is especially encouraging this early in the year.
  • Our Assist Rate of 44% is about 20% below our average from last year. While Otto is some of this, I would expect the assist rate to revert back to the average from last year. The low assist rate may suggest room for improvement on offense.
  • Georgetown was worked on the defensive glass, but performed at par on the offensive glass. I would have to re-watch the game, but I speculate that a lot of this is from Josh Smith's positioning. On offense, he was centered below the basket on most shots, but on defense, I noticed he was pulled away from the paint often and this yielded easy offensive rebounds for Oregon. With some coaching and adjustments, I think this can be corrected.

I'll try to post these going forward if people are interested and over time, I'm hoping to build out more analysis like Player Efficiency, Line-ups, Shot Charting and maybe try to chart some more stats that aren't posted (like post-ups, catch and shoot vs off the dribble) and such as time permits.

Stay Casual, my friends.

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