False Hope for a Double Bye: Another Look at the Big East Tournament
by Jeff Green's Dad on Feb 25, 2010 8:37 AM EST
in Previews and Predictions
40 comments
Whacky times in the Big East. UConn whipped West Virginia, Pittsburgh got molested by Notre Dame, St. Johns choked away a victory against Marquette, Seton Hall tamed the beast that is the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, and the mighty Hoyas of Georgetown dismantled Louisville on the road. The Big East Tournament got a lot more interesting since the last time we did this, oh all of THREE days ago.
After the jump, we take another look at the Big East Tournament, once again using Ken Pomeroy's magic projections, even though his projections are CRAP.
#1 Syracuse (Currently 26-2, 13-2, 1st Place):
Next 3 games:
Win vs. Villanova, Win vs. St. Johns, Win @ Louisville.
Projected Record: 29-2, 16-2, 1st Place
How sweet would it have been if Providence had held Syracuse off to win last night? That would have made me happy. Syracuse going 16-2 makes me unhappy.
#2 Villanova (Currently 23-4, 12-3, 2nd Place):
Next 3 games:
Loss @ Syracuse, Win @ Cincinnati, Win vs. West Virginia
Projected Record: 25-5, 14-4, 2nd Place
Antonio Pena and Taylor King should get matching tattoos that say "Ebony and Ivory Foul Machines".
#3 Pittsburgh (Currently 21-7, 10-5, 4th Place):
Next 3 games:
Win @ St. Johns, Win vs. Providence, Win vs. Rutgers
Projected Record: 24-7, 13-5, 3rd Place
Remember that time I said Jamie Dixon is far and away the Coach of the Year? And then remember the time they got waxed by 15 at Notre Dame? Well that wasn't very good. Can they lose another game and slip out of the top 4? Why not? They just got beat by 15 by Notre Dame without Luke Harangody. I'm pretty sure Notre Dame is a Division III team without Harangody.
#4 West Virginia (Currently 21-6, 10-5, 3rd Place):
Next 3 games:
Win vs. Cincinnati, Win vs. Georgetown, Loss @ Villanova
Projected Record: 23-7, 12-6, 4th Place
Boy that Ken Pom is losing it huh? First he has WVU as the #3 team in the country, then they lose to UConn. Now he has BYU as the #4 team in the country. I don't even have a joke.
#5 Marquette (Currently 18-9, 9-6, 5th Place):
Next 3 games:
Win @ Seton Hall, Win vs. Louisville, Win vs. Notre Dame
Projected Record: 21-9, 12-6, 5th Place
Marquette squeaked by St. Johns in overtime last night. I have full confidence they will lose two of their next three games and Buzz Williams will still be fat after.
Next 3 games:
Win vs. Notre Dame, Loss @ West Virginia, Win vs. Cincinnati
Projected Record: 21-8, 11-7, 6th Place
We win out and Marquette loses one and we have a double bye. If Pitt decides to poop on itself one more time we'd be #3. If Nova loses its last 3 we are #2. If Cuse loses 5 of its last 3 we're the #1 seed. It's math, it's simple.
#7 Connecticut (Currently 17-11, 7-8, 10th Place):
Next 3 games:
Win vs. Louisville, Loss @ Notre Dame, Win @ South Florida
Projected Record: 19-12, 9-9, 7th Place
UConn is going to get into the NCAA Tournament. Good for them, the more they win, the better it looks for our RPI, which I totally understand.
#8 Louisville (Currently 18-10, 9-6, 7th Place):
Next 3 games:
Loss @ Connecticut, Loss @ Marquette, Loss vs. Syracuse
Projected Record: 18-13, 9-9, 8th Place
Finishing 0-4 to end your season isn't going to impress the selection committee. Good thing Louisville is going to beat Marquette. Hopefully they don't have their Selection Sunday watch at a restaurant, that could be dangerous.
#9 Notre Dame (Currently 18-10, 7-8, 11th Place):
Next 3 games:
Loss @ Georgetown, Win vs. Connecticut, Loss @ Marquette
Projected Record: 19-12, 8-10, 9th Place
Len Elmore has some moronic formula for determining the Big East Player of the Year. I wish I could remember any of it, but I black out every time I hear his voice. His formula determined that Luke Harangody should be Player of the Year. He didn't play last night and Notre Dame beat Pittsburgh. Could you imagine that happening for Georgetown without Greg Monroe?
#10 Seton Hall (Currently 16-10, 7-8, 8th Place):
Next 3 games:
Loss vs. Marquette, Win @ Rutgers, Loss @ Providence
Projected Record: 17-12, 8-10, 10th Place
If Jeremy "Dumbo" Hazell can somehow carry Seton Hall to a win over Marquette, I may try to kiss him on the mouth.
#11 South Florida (Currently 16-11, 6-9, 12th Place):
Next 3 games:
Win vs. Providence, Win @ Depaul, Loss vs. Connecticut
Projected Record: 18-12, 8-10, 11th Place
Y'all came to see Dominique Jones play (in the CBI).
#12 Cincinnati (Currently 16-11, 7-8, 9th Place):
Next 3 games:
Loss @ West Virginia, Loss vs. Villanova, Loss @ Georgetown
Projected Record: 16-13, 7-11, 12th Place
Lance "Born Ready" Stephenson is ready for a sophomore year at Cincinnati. I've never been to Cincinnati, but I've heard it's the armpit of America.
#13 St. Johns (Currently 15-12, 5-10, 13th Place):
Next 3 games:
Loss vs. Pittsburgh, Loss @ Syracuse, Win @ Depaul
Projected Record: 16-14, 6-12, 13th Place
YOU IDIOTS, YOU COULD HAVE BEAT MARQUETTE TONIGHT AND YOU BLEW IT. YOU IDIOTS.
#14 Providence (Currently 12-15, 4-11, 14th Place):
Next 3 games:
Loss @ South Florida, Loss @ Pittsburgh, Win vs. Seton Hall
Projected Record: 13-17, 5-13, 14th Place
Writing about these last few teams makes me sad for their fans, then I remember we lost to Rutgers less than two weeks ago and I feel sad for me.
#15 Rutgers (Currently 14-14, 4-11, 15th Place):
Next 3 games:
Win vs. Depaul, Loss vs. Seton Hall, Loss @ Pittsburgh
Projected Record: 15-16, 5-13, 15th Place
During one of the last three games I hope that Mike Rosario's legs get cut off so that he can never salsa dance again.
#16 Depaul (Currently 8-18, 1-13, 16th Place):
Next 3 games:
Loss @ Rutgers, Loss vs. South Florida, Loss vs. St. Johns
Projected Record: 8-22, 1-17, 16th Place
It's going to be pretty depressing for Georgetown fans when Depaul beats Rutgers.
This is how the bracket shapes up:
(Click to make perty)
Still love our chances of getting to the finals. The team that scares me most in our side of the bracket is obviously Rutgers, but after that it'd be UConn right now. I'd be shocked to see Syracuse not get to the finals, but Louisville is always a tough matchup for them. Hopefully Syracuse loses, then we will be champions of the WORLD. And honestly, our team needs to start catching up with the PHENOMENON, because it is a bit of a mismatch right now. We're the best blog in the world and they are the 11th best college basketball team in the world. It just doesn't add up.
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"it's math, it's simple"
If the Cuse somehow lost to st. johns that should count as 3 losses. BE Tourney 1 seed here we come!
High fives only on three pointers.
by TheYellofAllYells on Feb 25, 2010 9:03 AM EST reply actions
Hopefully they don’t have their Selection Sunday watch at a restaurant, that could be dangerous.
Hahaha, definitely made me LOLZ
"It was almost like if Harry didn't call it, it wasn't real." - Jayson Stark
SB Nation
USF
would love to catch them again in the BE tourney (as the bracket above currently shows)…those f*ckers.
High fives only on three pointers.
by TheYellofAllYells on Feb 25, 2010 9:04 AM EST reply actions
No way
Pitt doesn’t poop on herself in at least one of the last three. Think of how messy we would be with those three matchups.
by Kim Frank's sweater on Feb 25, 2010 9:20 AM EST reply actions
i could see Providence beating them
although I say that having somehow made it through the entire season without watching a ND game
I can have oodles of charm when I want to.
Also
Marquette has GOT to screw up at least one of their remaining three. Last night’s games bode well in this regard on multiple levels. If they make it through all of them, I will eat my stapler. No seriously.
by eatthatbox09 on Feb 25, 2010 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
the delusional resurfaces
all this talk about the other team cr*pping on themselves – the last time the posters here started assuming without taking things one game at a time, we wound up losing to rutgers – y’all come to see mike rosario play?
youre right!
us looking ahead was the reason georgetown lost.
i dont even think they should have a schedule, just announce the next game right after the last one finished
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Feb 25, 2010 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
I'd just be happy
with 9pm tipoffs all the way through. Some solid evenings of beverage intake right there, and no need to take long lunches and the like.
All leading to my annual tradition of going on stubhub from my office at about 11pm on the Friday, securing overpriced seats, and making the age-old Amtrak vs Boltbus decision.
WWCasualBidenD? There, that makes it an easy call.
(I only then sink into a slough of despond when I enter MSG on the Saturday night and it’s Cuse vs Nova).
KBE
StubHub is for suckers
I have never paid more than face value for BET tix on Craigslist. Also, the students from other schools will dump tix at their seats right after games in which their team has been eliminated.
Casually.
true, though I am at my most suckerish
after quaffing gallons of ale during the semi, and waking up on Saturday at 6am literelly sitting at my desk at work with stubhub on the screen and notification that “you have bought two tickets!” The good sense, planning and forethought that you speak of has no place in such a debacle.
KBE
agree
buy one ticket to get in, buy the rest from fans selling in the garden
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Feb 25, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
what's the solution
if one is only going up on the Saturday, and so not running into the eliminated fans?
I guess craigslist is the next best bet, or having NYC hoyas (or those attending the semis) buy up some tix.
KBE
craigs list
or ask someone on this board to do it.
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Feb 25, 2010 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
Probably not the right place
for this post, but didn’t see an ND pre-game post yet. Irish Channel is an ND bar, just FYI. Should make things more interesting.
i talked to them about it post-cuse
they said they would be pro-gtown
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Feb 25, 2010 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
Can I come?
It's not you, it's me.
by Jeff Green's Dad on Feb 25, 2010 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
are they still anti-jeffgreensdad?
by lordnick on Feb 25, 2010 11:05 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
the bouncer still jokes about throwing him out
so yes
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Feb 25, 2010 11:19 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
EPCOT Brogue
Those fake idiots will tell you anything to get you to show up.
Or, did you ask all the ND fans that were there for the ’cuse celebration if they were coming?
Blip
by JahidiLikesPie on Feb 25, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
who cares
rather go to the place that has good beer than clydes – the shithole that sells itself out to cuse every game.
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Feb 25, 2010 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
And
Good beer —→ Magic Kingdom anyway, no?
by eatthatbox09 on Feb 25, 2010 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
Sweet.
Had just heard from some ND scum that they were planning on pre-gaming there, is all.
sure there will be plenty of them
but no banner outside welcoming them and giving drink specials like clydes
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Feb 25, 2010 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
FADO
do you know what percentage alcohol strongbow is? me either but it’s a lot
High fives only on three pointers.
by TheYellofAllYells on Feb 25, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
"I'm pretty sure Notre Dame is a Division III team without Harangody."
Is anyone else surprised that Harangody’s removal was addition by subtraction? He just doesn’t strike me as a me-first ball-hoggin’ kind of guy. I just assumed they always went to him BECAUSE he’s so good, but they were commenting last night like he was a black hole on offense that the lineup was happy to leave out.
Why so Syracuse?
Like how nova prepares for the Cuse game
but getting one of their guards arrested for public urination. Best part was that his teamates tried to hide him.
http://www.zagsblog.com/2010/02/25/novas-stokes-issued-citation/
HEY-O!
"It was almost like if Harry didn't call it, it wasn't real." - Jayson Stark
SB Nation
by Chris Haines on Feb 25, 2010 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
?
UConn is going to get into the NCAA Tournament. Good for them, the more they win, the better it looks for our RPI, which I totally understand.
Do game between other teams in conference have any impact on our RPI. One team loses, the other wins, how does that change our rpi?
I really have no clue about what the RPI is
I’m just assuming it will look like more of a quality win. Does that make any sense? Probably not.
It's not you, it's me.
by Jeff Green's Dad on Feb 25, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
Were you in the MSB?
Selection Committee — Yes, it might help, though if they beat USF, for instance, it’s going to make our USF loss look worse. We don’t know which the committee will look at more strongly when making their decisions.
RPI — No, it will not help. It’s math, it’s simple.
by Vee Sanford's Next-door Neighbor on Feb 25, 2010 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
uconn vs. usf
uconn wins – it makes our uconn win look better, and usf loss worse
usf wins – it makes our uconn win look worse, and usf loss better
since we lost at home to usf – we would rather usf look better, home losses count more in the rpi than away losses
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Feb 25, 2010 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
if we had beat uconn on the road, it would be a wash
there is more stuff i am missing, but the location of the game is almost as important as the result
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Feb 25, 2010 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
What I Understand
Who you beat is irrelevant to the RPI. Rather, who you play and where you win are much more important.
The RPI is simply a sum of the following weighted components:
25% — your winning percentage
50% — opponents’ winning percentage
25% — your opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage
So you’ll see that our final opponents’ winning percentage and opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage is entirely unaffected by any given result in conference games because the result is always the same: 1 win for our opponents, 1 loss for our opponents (same goes for opponents’ opponents). For all intents and purposes, no conference games except our own affect our final RPI.
The caveat you’re getting at is that your winning percentage is calculated based on where you play. This was instituted in 2004. Road wins = 1.4, Home losses = 1.4, Home wins = 0.6, Road losses = 0.6, Neutral W/L = 1.0.
Breaking this down for us this year:
11-3 at home —> RPI record of 6.6 – 4.2
6-4 on road —> RPI record of 9.6 – 2.4
2-0 neutral —> RPI record of 2.0 – 0.0
Adding everything up:
19-7 overall —> RPI record of 18.2 – 6.6
Two comments on this:
1. If we had beaten ODU (home), USF (home), and Rutgers (road), but lost to Nova (home), Pitt (road), and Duke (home), our overall RPI would be exactly the same. Thus, the first sentence of this post. Makes sense, right?
2. The home/away adjustment doesn’t really matter for us this year, but to make an example of a team this actually affects, let’s look at UCONN. They’re 17-11 overall, but their adjusted RPI Record is only 12.2 – 9.8 because they can’t win on the road.
Opponents and Opponents’ Opponents.
And Double-Stuft Oreos.
by Vee Sanford's Next-door Neighbor on Feb 25, 2010 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
Also worth mentioning:
The committee doesn’t just look at pure RPI, but at how a team did against quality teams. Currently, our 7-4 against the RPI top 50 is looking quite nice.
UConn is 40, and USF 67, so I don’t see either of them moving far enough to get to the other side of the 50 line.
Seton Hall is sitting at 52, giving us even more motivation to root for them to pick off Marquette this weekend.
(These numbers are all based on the results of Wednesday’s games, so they might be different by the time you click on the link.)
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/GTOWN?tag=untagged
What are these assertions!?
by DHB Enterprises on Feb 26, 2010 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
so youre telling me there's a chance?
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Feb 26, 2010 5:17 AM EST up reply actions
Correct, you are!
Another nice website, which has team pages almost identical to what the tournament committee sees is crashingthedance.com. Here’s Georgetown’s:
http://www.crashingthedance.com/profiles/2010/profile95.shtml
by Vee Sanford's Next-door Neighbor on Feb 26, 2010 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
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