Debate Time: Is Greg Monroe a Lottery Pick?
by Hire Esherick on Jan 15, 2010 10:00 AM EST
in Random Ramblings
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Like I alluded to earlier, last night I had a splendid conversation with an NBA scout from a struggling Western Conference team. I casually asked if Greg Monroe was still a lottery pick. He stated that after the performance he had just witnessed, and numerous games before, it was unlikely that Greg Monroe remains in the lottery.
More from the Scout after the Jump
Some points he made:
- Monroe is a great athlete and incredible passer
- But Monroe just doesn't have "it" [remains undefined]
- Georgetown system does not showcase his potential
- Georgetown system highlights guard play, although he admitted that Jeff Green fit into the offense well
- Only other players on the floor worthy of NBA attention were Jeremy Hazell and Herb Pope - no one else from Georgetown, our upperclassman guards were probably not athletic enough
- John Wall is unbelievable and will without a doubt be the number one pick
Discuss Amongst Yourselves
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oh, crap
I guess this entire team will have to stick around for next year.
Seriously, though I’m having a hard time getting worked up about this. I suspect if Greg actually goes late in the draft, he will end up being considered a “steal.”
I rushed the court on January 21st, 2006
key word in the resume
Perhaps I’d get more riled up if he were not from a STRUGGLING west coast team. Sounds like he’s not terribly good at his job.
by iheartgregmonroe on Jan 15, 2010 10:10 AM EST reply actions
Guesses
I’m guessing Golden State Warriors.
by CambridgeHoya on Jan 15, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
Silly
Bear in mind that this is the same clown who likely had some role in drafting Corey Brewer a few years ago and TWO POINT GUARDS (one of whom stayed in Europe) last year. Suffice it to say, his view is skewed and judgment is questionable.
There aren’t a lot of secrets with Monroe – he’s steady with the ball, is a decent athlete (I’m amazed the scout liked his athletic ability at all), can score in the post (though prefers to play on the perimeter), and is a very strong passer (particularly interior).
On top of that, he’s a 6’11 lefty – barring a huge onslaught of Euros, Monroe’s end of season stats will likely be right around 15 and 10 and he’ll likely be first team Big East. Unless he melts down in the tournaments (or over the tail end of the season), he’s still Top 10
by itsallthatmatters on Jan 15, 2010 10:14 AM EST reply actions
Ah, the ever present intangibles
Things you can’t measure or define because they are not real.
I think Monroe would benefit from another year in school for sure. For him to succeed in the NBA he probably needs to model his game even more after Jeff Green which means polishing his ballhandling and perimeter game. If he gets taken at a low spot in the draft, he may end up being a steal, but not at first. He’ll take some time to adjust to the NBA game and he’ll need to be more physical. He may still be a lottery pick, but he definitely isn’t top 5 like last year and maybe not even top 10.
"It was almost like if Harry didn't call it, it wasn't real." - Jayson Stark
SB Nation
Draft Boards
Draft Express has Monroe at #23
NBADraft.net has him at #13
If I wanted a big man that could only pass I’d trade my lottery pick for one of these.
Good talk.
Singler
Draft Express has Kyle Singler going in the first round so they might be using the same talent evaluators that Minnesota appears to be.
Compare Monroe to Kentucky’s 2 bigs: Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins. Patterson has spent 4 years in college and has probably become the best player he can be – and he’s quite a player. But looking at the mythical upside, Monroe certainly offers more but not as much as Cousins. The drawback there is that Cousins is probably shaping up to be the next Zach Randolph (at best) or Eddy Curry (at worst). So for teams that need help immediately, the pick is probably Patterson. After that, there’s something of a crapshoot – none of the 3 will likely ever make an all-star team but do you take a guy with good character with some great skills (thoguh drafting a passing big sounds like an awful idea) or a guy with terrible character but more skills.
The Jail Blazers were probably the end of an era and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Monroe go ahead of the more talented Cousins.
by itsallthatmatters on Jan 15, 2010 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
Bigs in the Draft
Derrick Favors
Ed Davis
Cole Aldrich
Patrick Patterson
DeMarcus Cousins
Dexter Pitman
Where does Monroe fit in?
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Jan 15, 2010 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
Derrick Favors
Has showed less as a freshman than Monroe did. Wait til Tech starts slumping. Cole Aldrich is the second coming of Rafael Araujo. DeMarcus Cousins is a complete headcase and will be arrested within 5 years. Dexter Pittman may eat another teammate soon.
Patterson and Davis are legit.
It's not you, it's me.
I would at least give Cole
the next Eric Montross, maybe big country 2.0 tag. I think the kid out of seattle (Garcia) is solid as well.
What I really think is happening is a little bit of familiarity breeds contempt. Roy went from being a possible top 10 post FF to middle/late first rounder simply because he was so scouted that everybody began nitpick I think with Greg its the same way. Hard to see anybody with need for PF passing on him for those names you mentioned.
by bunk moreland on Jan 15, 2010 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
Deon Thompson should be considered too. He doesn’t get much draft love either, but he has a well rounded offensive game and has a ton of experience. Probably not more than a role player in the pros and has probably hit his ceiling, but is overall a solid player.
Aldrich is an awesome rebounder and gets much draft love, but Monroe should be a better pro. Davis has the ever important athleticism and ceiling. He could most likely use another year in college too, but he’s as talented as they come. Patterson, as has been said, will be solid if unspectacular. He is well rounded and athletic, plays really well around the basket and can run the floor. Cousins will be awesome IF he settles down a little bit. How good he can ultimately be will depend on where he ends up (and who ends up coaching him).
Pittman should be in a zone all to himself. Having seen all of these guys play aside from Favors, Pittman has the ability to be most dominant. He is an absolute beast. If he ends up in a place that will keep working him physically, he will own the paint.
Greg seems like kind of a tweener right now. Very skilled and talented, with good post moves. No real outside offensive game, but probably talented enough to develop one. Above average but not outstanding athleticism. He will get out-muscled by the Pittmans and Pattersons of the world, but can probably outplay them anywhere but in the post. If Greg can develop and outside game, he becomes super dangerous as a 3 in the pros. Conversely, if he bulks up and plays more aggressive inside, his talent can make him one of the top interior players around in the mold of Tim Duncan. I’m not saying he will be that good, but he can certainly be that type of player. He has the passing, post moves and ‘Basketball IQ’ to play like that.
"It was almost like if Harry didn't call it, it wasn't real." - Jayson Stark
SB Nation
by Chris Haines on Jan 15, 2010 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Really?
I literally disagree with every single thing this man said. The Georgetown Offense showcases guards? John Thompson III has had four players drafted during his tenure at Georgetown – all four were forwards. Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert were just as unheralded coming out of high school as Tyler Crawford, Jessie Sapp, and Jonathan Wallace were. Speaking of Hibbert, he came into Georgetown barely able to walk and left as a top 20 pick in the NBA Draft.
It's not you, it's me.
Comparisons to Hibbert and Green
Monroe was the consensus #1 player coming out of high school. shouldnt he be doing more now?
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Jan 15, 2010 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
Yes, that's fine
If you measured Jeff’s junior year versus Greg’s sophomore year at this juncture, Greg is significantly better. He’s scoring more points, grabbing more rebounds, and blocking more shots. Oh and his team is 13-2, on the verge of being ranked in the top 10 in the country. And he also hit huge baskets to beat Temple and solidify the comeback against UConn. At this point in his junior year, Jeff’s Hoyas were 11-5 with a 1-2 record in conference play. And we all know how that ended up. It’s not to say Jeff was anything but spectacular during his junior year, I mean my name on this blog is Jeff Green’s Dad. I just can’t understand why Jeff was seen as versatile when he wasn’t scoring, yet Greg is seen as being too passive. You know what I like about Greg’s down games? They come in victories. When the lights have shined the brightest this year, namely Butler, Washington and UConn, Greg has averaged 18.0 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.7 steals, 1.3 blocks and 2.3 assists.
It's not you, it's me.
Green
But Green isnt Monroe. Monroe isnt Green. Finkle is Eihorn.
Monroe should be much better than Green right now. Green was unheralded coming out of school. Monroe was #1 in country – could have been top 3 pick in draft based on potential alone.
Now he is sliding, fast.
What gives?
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Jan 15, 2010 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
He's sliding because we are winning
You’re taking your basketball advice from Dick Vitale. The whole point of the Georgetown offense is to find the best matchup to win basketball games. That’s why you’ve seen Monroe go for 24 and 15 against Matt Howard and Butler, why Austin Freeman had 33 against UConn when no one was strong enough to defend him, why Chris Wright scored 34 against Harvard and why Jason Clark scored 20 last night. This team is playing unselfishly and is 13-2 with a 4-1 record in the toughest conference in the nation. The point of basketball is to win, right?
It's not you, it's me.
so seton hall matched up well against monroe?
monroe went 24 and 15 against butler becasue they suck.
monroe should have had 30 and 20 last night against seton hall.
wes johnson has 20 and 19 against them.
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Jan 15, 2010 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
You're missing the point
First, he got in foul trouble. These things happen. He’s been great about it all year. Second, the point of the offense is to find the hot hand, our guards were awesome last night, so Greg facilitated and got them the ball. The point of basketball is to win, last night we won. I’d much rather he have 6 points and we shoot 70% from the field.
If Monroe wanted to be one and done and put up huge stats, he would have went somewhere else. Jeff Green won BE player of the year averaging 14 points a game. This system doesn’t put up huge numbers, and for anyone to expect that is being unrealistic. Monroe knew this coming in. He came to Georgetown to become a better basketball player, and I think he has.
It's not you, it's me.
he became better basketball player...
…but is slowly losing out on a guaranteed million.
dont get me wrong. i think monroe is a great player and fits well in our offense.
but im not a scout – and based on other articles, draft boards and opinions, he is sliding out of the top 14
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Jan 15, 2010 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
That's fine and I think he is fine with it
He could have been a top 5 pick last year. He knew that. He wanted to get better at basketball. He’s done that. If the team keeps performing at a high level, he will get drafted in the lottery. It’s January, this is the time for blowhards like Chad Ford to knock someone based on his “inability to dominate”. If March comes and Georgetown is in the Sweet 16 or Elite 8, Monroe will be a lottery pick. I guarantee it.
You know who passed up being a lottery pick for another season at Georgetown? Roy. And you know what would have happened to Roy had he not? He would have had one 3 year contract and would have toiled at the end of the bench, probably ending up in Europe. Big men need time to mature into their bodies at this age, not everyone is Dwight Howard. Greg taking another year to develop will prolong his pro career. He just seems to have better foresight than anyone else.
It's not you, it's me.
I agree with you on most of your points
but I don’t see how Monroe (or anyone) would be “fine” with slipping out of the top 5. That’s millions of dollars he is losing out on. The problem I see is not with respect to Monroe, he’s already here, its on the recruits, the Roscoe Parrishs and Rakeem Christmases. How do we get those guys if they know their draft positions will slip, because they aren’t featured in the system.
I think the answer might be to look at Ewing Jr. The system also provides a convenient excuse to allow an NBA team to select a player who has shown superior talent but doesn’t have the numbers of other players. Teams can pass that off as “b/c he played in the Princeton Offense”
by SomebodyBuyAustinaSteak on Jan 15, 2010 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
Both are good points
Monroe being fine with it is stupid. I just think he understands that he needs to get better as a basketball player and that people nitpicking his game is the nature of the draft process at his level.
It's not you, it's me.
Greg thinking long-term
Totally agree w JGD. The NBA is like the old bull story better to take it slow for a longer NBA career and the potential to make many more million$
by glackensghost on Jan 15, 2010 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
what is this taking it slow nonsense
he isnt baking a cake.
he is a 5 star player. why doesnt he play like it. he is soft
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Jan 15, 2010 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
Taking it slow is a bs story your mom told you when you lost something
HEsherick is correct. Monroe is an athlete – not a business model. At any point he could break down and that’s it. Any delay in making the maximum amount of money he could is a mistake.
Someone is going to draft Greg Monroe. He’s 6’11" and is a decent athlete. That’s lottery material. If this Scout doesn’t take him, someone else would.
Now who knows if Greg would’ve gone in the top 5 last year. The question to me is, has his draft value gone down this year? Debatable. He was clearly the best person on the team last year, but all of his stats per game have gone up this year. He’s probably around the same – top 20 material, but not top 10.
Ticket
Macklin was pretty highly ranked too. Those high school rankings are wildly unpredictable
by itsallthatmatters on Jan 15, 2010 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
Rankings
Other players in Macklin’s class.
Greg Oden
Kevin Durant
Wayne Ellington
Ty Lawson
Darrell Arthur
Spence Hawes
Rankings arent exact but they are decent indicator of future success. Why has JT3 gotten two duds?
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Jan 15, 2010 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
Monroe is not a dud
Macklin is. It happens. He sucked at Georgetown, he sucks at Florida. That’s fine. But Monroe is not a dud.
It's not you, it's me.
Shortsighted
Greg is learning more in the two years in college about how to play basketball than any team will teach him at the next level. Teams may be enticed by raw talent and athleticism, but the bloom falls off the rose rather quick and the real key to long term deals is basketball IQ and work ethic. Without those, you are just going to be replaced by the next athletic 20 year old freak. Regardless of whether he falls in the draft, his experience of playing and learning the game at such a high level against such good competition is going to be worth millions.
by CambridgeHoya on Jan 15, 2010 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
Agree
This is why guys like Brandon Roy succeed at the next level. For every LeBron James there are 5 JeVale McGees, Anthony Randolphs and Kwame Browns. I’m not saying that everyone who stays in college is better off, but if a guy is inherently talented and hard working, the 3 or 4 years of polish they can get in college can be invaluable.
"It was almost like if Harry didn't call it, it wasn't real." - Jayson Stark
SB Nation
by Chris Haines on Jan 15, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
Kwame's lifetime earnings
$46 Million, 9 year nba career. Shitty player but he has earned nearly $50 Mil. Same draft – Eddy Curry, lifetime earings also $46 million. It pays to get drafted when your stock is highest. Very hard to see how Curry or Brown would have helped themselves staying in school. Greg should have gone last year and he should go this year absent a dissapearance the second half of the year. Someone in the lottery is going to take a flyer on a Lamar Odom clone from program with a track record of player being better in the NBA than people thought (Green, Hibbert and to a lessor extent, Summers).
Jeff Green and B. Roy did not have the buzz/hype that Greg does. Both had to earn it through college, they had not choice but to stay.
by bunk moreland on Jan 15, 2010 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
we have a winner
Monroe is not Green. The comparison is garbage.
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Jan 15, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
Brandon Roy
Will make at least double what either of your examples will because he is a better player and will play longer. Why he is a better player is for a myriad of reasons. However, one of those reasons is that he stayed in school and became a better player. And Roy is far from the only example. Tim Duncan would have been a lottery pick (if not number one overall) after his junior year. He had a ton of hype after two years in college. He stayed and his career has not suffered.
"It was almost like if Harry didn't call it, it wasn't real." - Jayson Stark
SB Nation
by Chris Haines on Jan 15, 2010 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
If game 5..
of the 2008 World Series was one of the happiest days of your life…… then how do you feel about game 6 of the most recent series????
by MerlinWilson'sSister on Jan 15, 2010 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
I dont disagree that staying might not hurt your career
but I am not convinced it significantly helps if you are reliably projected as a lottery pick. there are too many things that could go wrong.
From a player’s perspective, I think they should always declare when their draft position will be the highest. If the player thinks staying a year would signficantly help their position, then should stay. But if you are a lottery pick, there are simply too many variables not to declare. Take Oden for example, if he does not go after his freshman year, and his knee gets hurt his sophmore year, he would really have slid. Conversely Joe Alexander has turned one good year into a lottery pick (and about $5 M) despite being not discernibly better than Summers.
Also assuming a player’s draft position would not change by staying for year, its hard for me to see how staying in college will help a player better prepare for an NBA career. Look at Jennings, playing against grown men probably helped him more for the NBA than it did for Derrick Rose to dominate C-USA squads. If a player wants to stay to mature, have fun with co-eds, try for a championship etc, that is fine, I just think staying in college does a lot more for the school than it does for the player.
I love Roy, but he hurt his knee his junior year at UW when he was just starting emerge. Also Nate Robinson and Martell Webster (at the time a top 10 recruit who originally committed UW) both declared after Roy’s junior year. So Roy saw the chance to come back for his senior year and become the man. He had no choice but to stay. Roy also was rookie of the year and two time all-star on his rookie deal, so he earned his max deal by demonstrating he could play in the NBA, not b/c of his percieved potential.
by bunk moreland on Jan 16, 2010 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
And also
Our guards are too unathletic to play in the NBA? I’ll call Chris Wright a lot of things, but unathletic is not one of them. He’s quick, strong, and a great defender. Am I terrified every time he touches the ball in a key situation? Yes, but that is because he is a nutjob, not because he is unathletic. And Austin? Sure, when he was a blimp he was unathletic, but anyone would lose some quicks carrying an extra 30 pounds. Watch those dunks in the St. Johns game or the explosiveness on his drives in the UConn game. Undersized? Maybe, but not unathletic.
It's not you, it's me.
I agree
Freeman reminds me of Fred Jones with a better jumper. I think he will get a 2nd round look.
Wright I am not sold on, but I could see Clark making the leap with a little better handle.
by bunk moreland on Jan 15, 2010 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
dumb scout
I’ll take Clark, you can have Hazell. My “unathletic guard” just shut your “athletic” guard down on defense and dominated him in rebounds, assists, and every other category.
by SomebodyBuyAustinaSteak on Jan 15, 2010 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
he wasnt refering to clark
freeman and wright
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Jan 15, 2010 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Both Free and Wright make the team better
Hazell doesn’t.
One play yesterday demonstrates the point. The shot clock was winding down, and a Hall player had the ball, Hazell ran towards that player trying to get free to take a shot. In doing that, he brang his Gtown defender to the ball, effectively causing a Gtown doubleteam on the ball, leading to a forced shot as the shot clock expired.
Compare that to the 70% Gtown shooting caused by Wright and Freeman finding the open man with the ball.
by SomebodyBuyAustinaSteak on Jan 15, 2010 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
sad but true
i agree – freeman an infinitely better overall basketball player than hazell
but who do nba players resemble more: hazell or freeman?
thats why hazell gets the scouts attention and freeman doesnt.
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Jan 15, 2010 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
that's why I don't watch the pros
but still… how is DaJuan Summers a second round draft pick and Freeman is undrafted? Freeman better at points, assists, defense, and arguably (even at 6’3") rebounding.
by SomebodyBuyAustinaSteak on Jan 15, 2010 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
you said it in your post
6’3’’ – freeman will be going against opponents 6’5’’ + as a SG in the NBA
Good talk.
by Hire Esherick on Jan 15, 2010 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
not sure if summers/freeman are that far apart at the NBA level
summers is currently just an nba/tweener. 50/50 if he is even in the league two years from now. Summers had the physical attributes and some demonstration of skill to be a pro SF. Detroit took a flyer and he had a great summer league. Summers will be no better than 10th man in the NBA.
I think Freeman could be a spot NBA player, like Kyle Lowry or Von Wafer. That said as hire says below, Freeman just doesn’t have a position at the nba level. Face it freeman would have tough time defending againt most NBA shooting guards. And most PGs outside of Steve Blake would be quicker.
by bunk moreland on Jan 15, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
Hazell is a Volume Shooter
Why wouldn’t a team be interested? Look at how successful Sir Valiant Brown was at the next level…
by CambridgeHoya on Jan 15, 2010 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
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